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When Is The Next Crypto Bull Run? (2023)

Intermediate
Crypto
Altcoins
Jan 20, 2023
9 min read

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The year 2021 was a high time for Bitcoin and most crypto assets following the institutional adoption and government regulatory interest. Many potential projects continue to inundate the market as a source of affirmative influences for users and investors. While the market unexpectedly turns into turmoil following the calamitous events, many investors cannot help but question when the cryptocurrency market will enter a bull market again.  

Understanding Crypto Bull Runs

Bull run or bull market is used interchangeably to indicate that the price of assets or securities such as cryptocurrencies or stocks is rising in an upward trend rapidly. A crypto bull run is no different from the traditional market. It is usually characterized by the anticipation of investors to capitalize on the asset's price appreciation that yields substantial returns from their initial capital. 

During a crypto bull run, the price of cryptocurrencies usually experiences significant growth. Looking at Bitcoin's historical price chart, Bitcoin's bull run usually happens during the halving season, which we've seen in this timeline: 

  • 2013: $100 to $1,000

  • 2017: $1,000 to $19,000

  • 2021: $29,000 to $64,000 

Source: Cointelegraph

It is worth noting that a bull run is usually preceded by a period of consolidation. That means the price of an asset usually stabilizes after a period of volatility, which could be a sign of a pending bull market. Still, the bull market has yet to be activated.  

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Factors Contribute to A Crypto Bull Run

A variety of reasons primarily drive the crypto bull market. These include: 

  1. Demand and supply: The interest of the investors and traders can influence the demand for crypto assets, leading to an increase or decrease in prices. 

  2. Market news sentiment: Partnerships, optimistic bulletins, new projects, or technology roll-outs that draw investors' interest will usually increase the asset's price. 

  3. Institutional adoption: This signifies the utility of cryptocurrency, which could cause a ripple effect on retail users to hop on mainstream adoption. 

  4. Economic and political factors: Economy development and political stability help advance cryptocurrency adoption and increase financial inclusion.

  5. Scarcity of alternative investment: Slow-moving or low-return assets are less popular during uncertainty, resulting in a surge for higher-volatility, high-return assets like crypto. As the demand increases, the price of crypto will naturally increase too. 

  6. Inflation and interest rate: Higher interest rates typically mean it is easier for an investor with spare cash to invest in speculative and riskier assets like a high-liquidity cryptocurrency. 

Still, there are plenty of other factors to consider that may result in a crypto bull run. It's an accumulation of reasons that trigger the bull and bear market. Compared to the traditional market, crypto is still relatively new. Thus, it can be challenging to predict precisely when a bull run will occur.

How Often do Crypto Bull Runs Happen?

Crypto bull runs can happen throughout the years in a sparse frequency. Since the crypto market boasts volatility, bull or bear runs could occur throughout. Depending on the market, some may expect multiple bull runs, while others may go through an extended period of bearish conditions before a reversal happens. The length of a bull run varies depending on the optimism and investor's confidence in the digital assets. The more positive buzz around the asset, the longer the bull run lasts. It could last from a week to months, but it's unlikely for a bull run to last for several years without a correction. 

The cryptocurrency market is known for its volatility, which means that asset prices can fluctuate rapidly. For example, Bitcoin or Ethereum prices during a bull run could soar unexpectedly over 100% and without warning. While past performance is a great vehicle to plan your risk management strategies, it may not be the best indicator to predict a bull run or a bear market. Your best bet is to make investment decisions based on your risk tolerance and objectives. 

How Long Does Crypto Bull Market Last?

The length of a bull market in the cryptocurrency market can vary significantly. Some bull markets can last for only a few weeks or months, while others can last for several years.

Various factors can determine the length of a bull or bear market: 

  • Investors sentiment

  • Institutional adoption

  • Underlying fundamentals

  • Political influence

  • Regulations 

As a rule of thumb, the stronger the positive sentiment, the higher the chance for the crypto market to sustain a bull run over an extended period. A periodic correction is inevitable, and the crypto price may decline before going on an uptrend again. This is not an unusual trajectory and may not necessarily be interpreted as an indicator that a bull market is over. 

How to Time the Crypto Markets

Timing the cryptocurrency market can be challenging as prices fluctuate rapidly and unpredictably. And since the crypto market operates 24/7, it takes a lot of work to stay on the ball. However, there are several strategies that traders and investors deploy to time the market more effectively.

  1. Technical analysis: It is effective to evaluate the performance of an asset by analyzing statistics generated by market activity, such as trading volume, price performance and market liquidity. Traders use this information to identify patterns and trends to time the entry and exit points of an asset. Technical analysis is suitable for short-term or even long-term investments.

  2. Fundamentals analysis: Analyzing the underlying potential of a project or company gives an overview of an asset's growth potential to decide its sustainability as well as conditions within its industry or in the broader economy. Fundamental analysis focuses more on the long-term prospect of an asset than the short-term. 

  3. Sentiment analysis: Social sentiment plays a significant role in helping investors gain insights into the overall optimism about an asset. 

  4. Market economy analysis: Announcements from regulatory bodies, leaders' comments and political shifts can provide information on market direction. Project partnerships or technology innovations can cause a market reversal in a short period of time. 

While there are plenty of factors we should consider before entering the market, there is no 100% accuracy for market prediction. With a well-defined plan for entering and exiting positions, risk management is regarded as a better choice for sustainable investment. 

Is the Crypto Winter Ending?

The last crypto winter lasted from January 2018 to December 2020. 2021 was high time for most cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). In fact, the value of one BTC exceeded over $65,000 in November 2021. However, last year, most cryptocurrency prices fell by more than half, trading volume on most exchanges cratered, and several high-profile companies even collapsed in liquidity crises. With more exchanges and project fallouts from this crypto crash, the crypto winter has extended longer than anticipated. 

There has been speculation that we're at the beginning of a bull run. For example, BTC and ETH prices recently marked history on Jan 12, 2023, after a tumultuous 2022. However, it is still difficult to predict with certainty that the prolonged downturn in the cryptocurrency market is finally over. 

Here are some of the feedback from the experts: 

When Will the Next Crypto Bull Run Begin?

Rumors and speculation are hovering around the internet for the next Bitcoin bull run. Although there are no concrete predictions as to when the next crypto bull run will occur, there has been some analysis done by the experts: 

  • Peter Brandt: The past two times BTC advanced 10X or more required an average of 33 months before the next stage of the rocket kicked in. 

Followed by a more recent tweet: 

  • Anthony Scaramucci: The founder of SkyBridge Capital called the year 2023 a "recovery year" for Bitcoin and predicted it could trade at $50,000 to $100,000 in two to three years. 

Followed by a recent comment on the crypto market: 

"We're very bullish," Scaramucci said. "I don't think you can predict these markets [in the] short term." 

Should You Invest Before a Bull Run?

It is ideal to invest in cryptocurrency or other assets when it is undervalued rather than wait for a bull market to begin. While we all struggle to figure out when Bitcoin or any other crypto has reached its bottom, on-chain data could give us some insights. 

Taking Bitcoin as an example, on-chain data shows that the current market condition has an uncanny resemblance trend with the last two market cycles. In November 2022, Bitcoin marked the bottom, trading at around $15,500 per token. If the data is accurate, it could indicate that the crypto market has already entered the bullish cycle. However, the on-chain data could provide some indication to confirm a bull run in the cryptocurrency market.

  • Network value to transaction ratio (NVT): It measures the correlation of crypto market capitalization and the value per transaction on the blockchain to provide insight into whether the digital asset is over- or undervalued. A high NVT ratio may indicate the asset is overvalued, and a low ratio means the asset is undervalued.

  • Blockchain daily transactions:  A significant increase in transactions could indicate the coin is active and is on-demand among traders or investors.

  • Hash rate: Higher hash rate indicates demand in the market. Hence more miners are actively consuming the computing power to secure the network through mining. 

  • Wallet addresses: A high amount of unique wallet addresses could indicate a higher adoption and usage of the crypto market. 

  • MVRV (market value to realized value): A high MVRV ratio means a coin is overvalued, and a low ratio indicates a coin is undervalued. 

While on-chain data provides a deeper analysis of the trading activities, it is still insufficient to confirm a bull run. Cross-referencing with market sentiment and other external factors like the macroeconomy could play a significant role. Assuming the consumer price inflation and employment numbers improved, it could also boost investors' confidence in their investment, eventually leading to a bull run. 

Overall

In summary, whether you're trading or investing, it is important to remember that the cryptocurrency market is highly volatile and can be unpredictable. There are no absolute answers to time the market accurately. But thorough research and a clear understanding of the risks involved could make a difference in your return on investment. Always diversify your portfolio and invest in what you can afford to lose. 

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