Mastering crypto market psychology with TraderMercury

Bybit Learn spoke to TraderMercury (@TraderMercury on X), a long-time Bybit partner and trader known for his disciplined and philosophical approach to markets. 

Mercury reveals his journey as a trader, how he overcame his biggest challenges and navigated markets to become a successful trader.

Let’s dive in!

Please note that this article and any tokens mentioned does not constitute financial advice. The interview has been edited for formatting and grammatical accuracy.

Q: Firstly — congratulations on retiring your parents! How did that feel?

Mercury: It feels incredible. My family has been through a lot and many of my followers have heard my story about how my parents went from being broke, to millionaires, to being homeless. My ultimate goal has been to grant them an early retirement ever since I was 14 years old, and at the end of 2024 I was finally able to do that, thanks to markets.

Q: You've tweeted that you got into crypto 7 years ago — how did you first get into trading crypto? What sparked your interest, and what motivated you to dive into the wild west of crypto?

Mercury: I initially got into crypto by scrolling Twitter and seeing an ad for XRP/Ripple at the time. It piqued my interest and I immediately saw crypto as a ‘get-rich-quick’ scheme. I was naive enough to dive into things head first, and ironically I actually did get rich quick — I bought just before the final push upwards in 2017, and my account was up 4x in the span of a few weeks. I remember thinking to myself: “I’ll just hold these assets forever and retire,” to which I was met with -90% drawdowns over the course of the next few months, after taking no profit at all.

I became intrigued by the premise of volatility. My large losses only exacerbated my fuel to achieve large gains; I figured someone was making money from this market, why couldn’t it be me?

Q: Tell us about TraderMecury's trading journey — what were some of the biggest challenges you faced as a beginner, what advice would you give yourself if you were just starting out?

Mercury: My trading journey was initially described above, and was followed by a large humbling in March of 2020. Prior to that, I had spent the past 2 years recovering my losses from that initial naivety since joining crypto, and once again managed to rally my account 5x in that time period, leading up to March 2020. When the covid crash happened, I was caught with positions in the middle of it, and due to a failure of applying risk management, and overconfidence in my abilities, I was once again met with -80% drawdown on my entire portfolio — which, because I was only 20 years old at the time, also happened to be 100% of my net worth.

That moment was by far the most difficult event I’ve ever dealt with, but the most difficult aspect of trading was my inability to hold unrealized profit.

After my humbling, I regathered myself and restructured my approach from the very foundation. I began to view the market differently than my prior-self. I was now finding myself detaching from the market and at peace with the way I was trading, which felt very refreshing in comparison to the 2 years I had spent prior slaving away at the charts and utterly destroying my mental health.

But I was met with a new issue: I often closed positions too early, out of fear that the market would take those gains away just as quickly as it gave me those gains. I was now struck with trauma due to my experiences.

It was difficult, but I had to pace myself; slowing down with the amount I was trading with, and also forcing myself to hold positions, no matter how much my brain wanted to impulsively close positions out of randomness.

Q: You're known for your disciplined approach to trading, your 'snowball to snowman' way of thinking and trend-following strategy. Tell us about how you use it to navigate markets.

Mercury: After March 2020, when the dust had settled and I was forced to look at my new, networth of -80% lower than where it had been just a few weeks prior, I remember thinking to myself “there was nothing I could have done.” But I soon realized that was not true — I saw the downtrend, I acknowledged the drawdown, I knew what options I had, yet I consciously decided to do nothing. I had friends that made a doctor's annual salary during that same event. Again, I thought to myself, “why couldn’t that be me?”

I vowed to never let the market ‘catch me off-guard’ ever again. I realized that for whatever happens next, I must see it coming to a smaller degree first in order for that same momentum to be exaggerated further — hence “it is impossible to build a snowman without making a snowball first.”

Combine that analogy with the manner of which you build a 1000-piece puzzle. You do not randomly grab two pieces and question if they go together — you grab the pieces with a flat-edge, which clearly makes the border for the puzzle, and start there. You then fragment the puzzle and categorize by color schemes, using objects within the puzzle that are more easily identifiable, and begin piecing those together. From there, the puzzle’s completion is well on its way, and by understanding each section of the puzzle, you’ve now given yourself the clarity to understand the puzzle in its entirety, with the utmost clarity.

The analysis I make about any market operates in the same manner. I understand what’s occurring on one timeframe, and how that relates with the timeframes higher or lower. I keep repeating this process until the chart as a whole makes sense — at which point I’m now able to break down the market's complicated movements to a 5-year old, as if I were reading a storybook. Context is key, so considering the context of one timeframe into the next is a great way of adopting an intuition, a feel for the market’s movements and getting a jump on what may happen next.

Q: What was your best trade? How did you go through with the thesis, setup, execution and exit?

Mercury: My best trade as of now was just recently, as I bought Bitcoin around $57k, and sold it at an average of $100k. The percentage gain may not seem like much for crypto natives, but due to my conviction in the thesis I was playing into, I was able to justify risking more than usual in order to fully capitalize on the opportunity before me. Conviction is that feeling in your gut that tells you you’re witnessing an incredible opportunity in its’ infancy, before the greater market has been able to identify it — I remember telling the members in my discord that the price action in September 2024 and the sentiment in the air reminded me of the bear market lows in 2022. As a trader that thrives off of exaggerated momentum driven moves, it’s my job to extract lots of value from those moves; I also remember telling my members, both at the time and now, about how “even though I’ve managed to benefit from all 6 of the major rallies throughout the past 2 years, I’ve only ever compared to the bear market lows once” — that’s conviction.

Prior to that rally, my biggest win was in March 2023, once again on Bitcoin, after USDC began to depeg. I felt my back was against the wall as I hold most of my trading portfolio in USDC whenever I’m pending a new setup, and the environment at the time was plagued with uncertainty — not just for stablecoins, but for banks that were seemingly going insolvent every other week as well. Even though it was against my trading philosophy to do so, I managed to buy Bitcoin at the exact bottom with a bulk portion of my trading account, just beneath $20k, before it rallied to $30k in the next week — thanks to a fundamental understanding of Bitcoin as an asset. Whenever I tell this story, people immediately interject that I got lucky, and whilst luck plays a role in every success story, I like to believe that my luck was a byproduct of my discipline and decisions leading up to a major FUD event. Remember in March 2020 I did not have the luxury of ‘buying the dip’ — this time, I had previously cut positions 15-20% higher than where the market bent my hand and forced me to buy Bitcoin due to its’ fundamentals. The tier of quality of options that I had given myself were substantially greater than what an alternate version of myself could have been presented with, and therefore, so was the outcome.

Q: How do you maintain emotional control and deal with FOMO or fear during extreme market volatility?

Mercury: At some point, I think you become numb to it. I’ve found myself treating volatility as ‘normal’ and because I’ve traded the market for over 7 years now, there’s nothing that I haven’t seen, in either direction. That emotional discipline and maturity comes with experience — which is why it’s frequently mentioned that experience, especially in crypto, is invaluable. I also like to remind myself that “opportunity is abundant.” In a true manic rally, there is always more opportunity than what you can catch, so it’s inevitable that you will miss out on most things. The beauty in this is: even if you manage to capture a crumb of the opportunity that’s presented to you, that alone can be sufficient. It’s imperative to accept that you will not catch everything, and also realize that you do not need to. Bend your perspective to be in an ‘abundance’ mindset as opposed to a ‘scarcity’ mindset.

Fear on the other hand is inevitable; regardless of your positioning, there is always something to be fearful of. If you’re long: you fear a selloff. If you’re sidelined or short: you fear a market rally. If fear is inevitable, then it is also redundant. Find a way to mitigate fear of the market by taking comfort in whatever risk you’re taking, and formulate a strategy that allows you to express that positioning in a rational manner in order to achieve that comfort. ‘Balance’ is incredibly underrated, and allows for greater and more consistent results over time, in my experience; whereas extreme positioning and stances in the market invoke emotions and often create large setbacks.

Q: The recent market selloff has hit a lot of traders hard. How did you navigate the drawdown, and what tips would you give to those who’ve taken significant losses?

Mercury: As mentioned above I managed to cash out some of my investments, as well as close positions near the highs. There were a few losses that were taken since then as the market began to chop up and eventually downtrend, but that’s nothing out of the ordinary for me with my system — I navigated this selloff just like every other selloff in the market, and to the degree that I expect myself to. I have my fair share of bags that went to 0, but that was a calculated risk, which had previously paid off, and is not a substantial portion of my trading account by any means, mostly because I knew exactly what I was doing and “if you play stupid games, you’ll win stupid prizes.” 

So it’s not to say that I was unaffected by the market’s downturn, it’s just that it’s nothing new for me, and is no different than any other downturn, and I’ve allowed myself the grace to see it that way due to my philosophical approach to markets, and the foundation I’ve built for myself. When I see a downtrend that looks like, smells like and trades like a downtrend… and it continues downtrending, I am not allowed to be surprised. From there, it’s a matter of expressing the discipline and patience to step out of the way and wait for better days; knowing when to deploy capital to take asymmetric risks, but also knowing when to preserve capital in order to have the luxury of deploying later on.

Q: What are your thoughts on the current market condition? Which part of the cycle do you think we are at now, and has the cycle played out as you expected?

Mercury: There are lots of caveats, but the cycle has pretty much done exactly what I expected it to. I know people say it’s the worst bull market ever, but I think the market is what you make of it, and it seems unfair to throw labels onto something like that with no way of quantifying it — this has been my best bull market ever. With that said, I’m not sure what to expect next from a cyclical standpoint, and I truly think it’s best to avoid those thoughts because it seems like energy wasted in comparison to the value those thoughts bring, even if uncannily accurate. I do, however, think that the crypto market is broken as of my time of writing, and I’m waiting to see if stocks are as well, because that would be potentially indicative of a market that disallows for recoveries as we’ve seen the past 2 years. Many charts in crypto need lots of repair before we can have a conversation of a bull market resumption, and that’s typically not something that occurs in a few days.

Q: Finally, how do you use Bybit in your day-to-day crypto trading or investing, and what aspects of the platform do you like? Is there anything you would like to see improved on Bybit?

Mercury: Bybit has been my primary trading platform since 2019 — back when they only had 3 pairs to trade, and they were all inverse perpetuals, haha! It’s come a long way, and I remain in awe at the improvements made, the integrity of Bybit and its team, and the seamlessness of the trading experience. It is truly incredible to watch Bybit succeed and continue to grow, and I look forward to the future. I think the recent hack, and how Bybit managed to communicate, handle and operate through that unfortunate event, put on a global display of the same values that established my desire to be a partner with Bybit for all these years — absolutely incredible job.

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