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While traditional risk-on assets such as US equities continue to trade at the helm of oil prices and geopolitical headlines, BTC is showing some signs of price-action that is also being driven by idiosyncratic factors.
Since the conflict in the Middle East began, BTC has outperformed both gold and the S&P 500 index, up as much as 21%.
That resilience in spot price against a macro backdrop which has seen traditional risk-assets struggle coincides with the beginning of a recovery in institutional appetite.
While still negative year-to-date (-16%), Spot Bitcoin ETFs are currently on a six-day inflow streak, something we last saw in late September-to-October during BTC’s ascent to the $126K all-time high.
Meanwhile, Michael Saylor’s Strategy, the largest BTC digital asset treasury by supply held, has purchased more than $7B worth of the asset so far this year, equivalent to nearly 89,000 coins.
Additionally, the resilience in spot price has also bolstered a recovery in risk-sentiment.
Our Risk-Appetite Index for both majors, BTC and ETH, have now bounced off their early March lows.
Block Scholes’ Risk Appetite Index measures the level of euphoria (above 1) or panic (below -1) in the spot market. Momentum in this index shows a strong relationship to spot returns.
Our 2026 outlook report made the case that consistent inflows and buy-side demand from Bitcoin Spot exchange-traded funds had “backed each crypto rally since their launch”.
After the 10/10 liquidation event, however, we’ve seen sporadic demand from institutional investors to re-enter the crypto market.
As such, most of the modest and brief rallies in BTC spot price year-to-date have occurred against a backdrop of weak Spot ETF demand (year-to-date net flows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs are -$280.1M).
However, half-way into the month of March ...
We are beginning to see tentative signs that capital is returning back to Bitcoin and the strongest signal of demand since the October crash began
Between March 9 - 16, 2026, Spot Bitcoin ETFs purchased $962.8M of bitcoins, across 6 consecutive days of inflows.
The last time the Spot products saw this many (or more) back-to-back days of inflows was between Sept 29, 2025 and Oct 9, 2025 - a period that also coincided with the $126K all-time high.
Additionally, alongside a return in ETF demand, we have also seen Strategy, the largest Bitcoin digital asset treasury firm, provide the market with a persistent structural bid.
Since the start of the year, Strategy has hoovered up nearly 89,000 bitcoins, at a total cost of $7.174B.
Together, the return in institutional demand from Spot ETFs and Strategy have resulted in a significant shift in the rolling 20-day sum of net flows from -$2B in late February 2026 to $5.3B.
If history is a signal, continued inflows into Spot ETFs and improved institutional sentiment could provide further support for BTC amidst the current geopolitical tensions.
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