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Markets remain focused on the ongoing Middle East conflict, as rising oil prices stoke fears of an inflation shock worldwide.
Despite the heightened uncertainties at present, so far this month, cryptos have quietly outperformed other major assets, except oil of course;
Gold (XAUUSD+): -4.8%
S&P 500 (SP500): -2.6%
US dollar index (DXY): +2.4%
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): +11.5%
Ethereum (ETHUSDT): +19.1%
Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD): +41.5%
WTI Crude Oil (USOUSD): +44.2%
(month-to-date performance, as of March 17th)
Today, Bitcoin briefly surged past $76,000 - marking a six-week high!
Since bouncing off the $60k level on February 6th, BTC has climbed as much as 26.6%, with such price gains igniting fresh optimism across crypto markets.
Institutional players and whales appear to be wading back in:
Strategy's purchases: Michael Saylor's Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) purchased 22,337 Bitcoin for almost $1.57 billion last week (March 9 and March 15). That was its 5th-largest weekly purchase ever and the biggest buy since January.
ETF inflows: US-listed spot Bitcoin exchange-tradef funds (ETFs) posted 3 straight weeks of inflows, attracting US$1.3 billion so far this month (March 2026).
Short squeeze: 10x Research points to a massive short squeeze in derivatives, specifically put options at $60k. Meanwhile, Coinglass data showed some US$ 530 million worth of liquidations over the past 24 hours.
The US$1.5 trillion-dollar (BTC's current market cap) question on every trader's mind: Is the bear market over?
Perhaps the prudent stance is to say, not just yet.
Here's why:
Risk of another fake-out
Although Bitcoin has technically entered a new bull market again, we've actually seen a similar surge just a few months ago - which proved to be a fake-out within the existing bear market.
Looking at the chart above once more, BTC climbed as much as 21.6% between the November 21st intraday low ($80,607.90) through that January 21st intraday high ($97,963.20). Yet those gains didn't hold, with BTC then going on to plummet to $60k in February 2026.
And for proper context, Bitcoin remains over 40% below its all-time intraday high of $126,150 registered on October 6th, 2025, despite today's spike to a 6-week high.
NOTE: An asset enters a "bull market" when it has risen by 20% or more from a recent low.
Middle East conflict may worsen macro backdrop
The longer the Middle East conflict persists, the odds of soaring oil prices stoking inflation worldwide may rise.
Once markets are forced to reckon with a global inflation shock, such a reality should force risk assets, including cryptos, to tumble lower.
Technical resistance still ahead
Recall the previous ill-fated "bull-market", which peaked on January 14th - BTC was strongly resisted at its 100-day simple moving average (SMA).
Hence, Bitcoin has to convincingly overcome its 100-day SMA, around the $80,000 psychologically-important level, before it can send a more definitive bullish message.
The evidence suggests we're witnessing a significant inflection point, but calling an absolute bottom remains premature.
The combination of relentless institutional accumulation, sustained ETF inflows, and technical momentum indicators paints an increasingly bullish picture.
However, macro headwinds continue to inject volatility into risk assets and cloud the near-term outlook.
For market participants with healthier risk appetites, the message is clear:
Accumulation may be the smart play at these levels, but be wary of future bouts of volatility.