Bybit X Block Scholes Option Volatility Report: November Option Volatility Report: Volatility on the Road to $100K

Key Highlights:

Our monthly option volatility report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

• Bitcoin (BTC) is displaying strong bullish signals as it reaches the $100K mark, driven by increased demand for call options and a market that reacts quickly to spot price movements.

• Ethereum (ETH) is likely to outperform Bitcoin, gaining momentum following significant market events, including the resignation of SEC Chair Gary Gensler, which has shifted trader focus and sentiment toward ETH.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Bullish Signals: Bitcoin Hits $100K

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Option volatility outlines a compelling narrative for Bitcoin as it approaches the $100K milestone. Leading up to the U.S. election on Nov 5, 2024, Bitcoin's implied volatility experienced a dramatic surge, with short-term implied volatility rising approximately 25 percentage points above post-election expirations. This spike indicated strong bullish positioning in the derivatives market as traders sought to capitalize on anticipated price movements driven by electoral outcomes.

In the immediate aftermath of the election, there was a sharp decline in short-term volatility, aligning with a rally in spot prices that, in turn, led to higher realized volatility. However, the decline in implied volatility didn’t reflect a long-term bearish sentiment — instead, it suggested a temporary easing of uncertainty regarding the election results. The term structure of implied volatility demonstrates a complex relationship: while short-term volatility dipped, longer-dated options remained stable above 50%.

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

The call/put skew indicates strong demand for bullish call options relative to bearish puts since the election, reflecting heightened upside exposure during BTC and ETH rallies. However, when BTC retraced to $91.3K, the skew shifted 6% toward puts, signaling bearish sentiment. This was inconsistent with futures markets, in which prices remained above spot levels, indicating ongoing bullishness. The skew toward OTM puts arose from increased demand for protective hedges, rather than from a lack of call interest. Ultimately, this suggests traders believe any sell-off would be temporary, supporting the idea that volatility is necessary in order for BTC to reach the $100K mark.

ETH Is Likely to Outperform Bitcoin

In contrast to Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH) has emerged as a more consistently bullish asset in recent weeks. While both BTC and ETH exhibited similar volatility patterns immediately following the election, Ether has shown notable resilience and increased momentum, particularly in the wake of Gary Gensler's resignation. This political shift has positively influenced ETH’s market dynamics, resulting in a stronger demand for ETH options.

Source: Block Scholes

Ether outperformed Bitcoin during critical market events, including both the election and ETF announcements in 2024. Following Gensler's resignation, ETH gained significant traction, with traders increasingly focusing on Ethereum as a more attractive investment. This shift is evident in the significant drops in the ratio of BTC-to-ETH spot price, indicating that traders are reallocating their preferences toward ETH.

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

The divergence in implied volatility between BTC and ETH options further underscores this trend, as the ratio of implied volatility for ETH options has surpassed that of BTC, reflecting a stronger demand for ETH optionality. Historically, ETH has exhibited higher volatility compared to Bitcoin. This recent uptick in ETH's implied volatility reestablishes the typical pattern of ETH commanding a premium in the options market.

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Moreover, the skew in options pricing has shifted in favor of calls for both BTC and ETH, but ETH's skew has remained more robust. This suggests a stronger bullish sentiment for ETH, as traders are positioning more aggressively for its price appreciation compared to that of Bitcoin. As the market continues to evolve, Ethereum's increasing dominance and the bullish signals from its options market position it as a leading contender in the cryptocurrency landscape, making it likely to outperform Bitcoin in the near future.

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