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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.
Macro movements shifted spot prices over the weekend, continuing crypto's January 2025 trend of influencing Monday's equity moves. However, this week's reactions were less pronounced, as indicated by lower implied volatility, even amid brief inversions in the volatility term structure. A high mid-week CPI print had minimal impact on spot prices, as reflected by weak sentiment indicators in derivatives markets, including volatile funding rates in altcoins, stagnant open interest in futures and options and a decline in the bullish skew of longer-tenor volatility smiles.
In perpetual swap markets for major tokens, open interest remains stable, though funding rates have often been volatile and negative. Meanwhile, despite several inversions in ETH’s term structure, volatility expectations have decreased over the past month.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
Perpetual swap open interest has remained stable over the past 10 days since the drop on February 3, 2025, with no return to overleveraged levels, as indicated by funding rates. This trend aligns with futures, which haven’t regained their previous strong basis above spot prices, and options, which have lost some bullish skew toward OTM calls that persisted after the election. Additionally, trade volumes have decreased, compared to the previous two weeks, reflecting the lower volatility in the spot market during the same period.
Outright volatility levels are at their lowest this year, reflecting diminished demand for optionality and lower expectations of future volatility. Despite this downward trend, the volatility term structure has inverted multiple times over the past month, typically late Sunday or early Monday. Reduced spot price volatility is mirrored in lower trade activity in options markets, with average trade volumes at their lowest for the year over the past week, while open interest in both call and put options remains stable.
Trade volumes in SOL put options dropped this week, with significant positions noted on Feb 2 and 9, 2025, coinciding with President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and China’s retaliatory measures. In contrast, open positions in call options have remained relatively stable as spot prices decline from their Jan 19, 2025, all-time high. However, longer-dated call options continue to dominate, although the gap in open interest has narrowed.