Bybit X Block Scholes Option Volatility Report (January 2025): Reflections From Year-End Expirations; Will $100K Hold This Time?

Key Highlights:

Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

Following the significant expiration of contracts on Dec 27, 2024, and despite the largest single-day expiration in crypto derivatives history, the anticipated spike in volatility did not materialize. Instead, the realized volatility of BTC, ETH and SOL declined, defying expectations. Key takeaways include the following:

• Limited in-the-money (ITM) options expiration reduced potential hedging-driven market impact.

• Post-expiration, implied volatility for longer-dated options traded at a premium.

• The overall market remains cautiously bullish, with growing volatility premiums despite recent price movements.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Market Dynamics Post-Expiration in December 2024

Although the December 27 expiration saw over $435 million in contracts expire, the actual market response was muted. Only $65.53 million of BTC options expired in-the-money (ITM), indicating that the majority of significant contracts expired worthless. The clustering of ITM puts and calls at high strike levels (between $70K and $105K) highlighted the lack of significant hedging activity that typically drives volatility during expiration events.

As a result, realized volatility for BTC, ETH and SOL fell, with the most notable declines observed in the days following the expiration. This trend reflects a market environment in which sophisticated trading strategies haven’t led to the anticipated volatility spikes, indicating a cautious sentiment among traders.

Could $100K Hold This Time? — and Volatility Premiums

Despite the lack of immediate volatility following the expiration, forward-looking volatility expectations for 2025 remain elevated. Implied volatility levels for BTC and ETH have traded sideways, but the premium over realized volatility is at its highest since before the Nov 5, 2024 U.S. elections, suggesting traders are preparing for potential future price swings.

The term structure of implied volatility indicates a stable demand for short-term options, even as the market navigates a quieter winter. Meanwhile, the return to BTC prices above $100K hasn’t seen the same level of inversion in term structure as previous rallies, suggesting a less aggressive market stance. However, a bullish call-skew in shorter-tenor volatility smiles indicates ongoing optimism among traders regarding potential price movements in the near future.

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