Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Jan 8, 2025): Market Braces for Volatility Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

The new year saw BTC's spot price briefly surpass $100K, but this surge faded after the U.S. JOLTS report dampened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. As a result, risk-on assets, including crypto, lost their early gains. Unlike in previous surges, derivatives market sentiment hasn’t strongly supported this move. Notably, realized volatility in crypto trading was around 20 points lower than the implied volatility from a one-month BTC option, marking the largest volatility premium since the 2024 U.S. elections without a clear event risk.

Lower trade volumes contributed to the drop in realized volatility in perpetuals, although open interest has remained stable. In options, despite a steep volatility term structure, short-tenor implied volatility is significantly higher than the realized volatility observed over the past week.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Sluggish Trading Activity and Low Volatility

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Perpetual swap markets have experienced a significant drop in liquidity over the winter break, with trading volumes declining not just on weekends and holidays but throughout December. As noted previously, lower trade volumes often lead to reduced volatility in spot prices, in evidence during this period. Realized volatility has mirrored the decreased trading activity. Meanwhile, open interest has remained stable compared to pre-December expiration levels, indicating minimal significant hedging activity in the perpetual swap markets.

Large Gap Between 30-D Implied Volatility and 7-D Realized Volatility

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

ETH's options markets are showing a clear preference for call options, while BTC's open interest is more balanced after the expiration of December’s contracts. Similar to ETH, BTC’s term structure has steepened in the new year, driven by a decline in short-tenor volatility and a moderate rise in longer expirations. The gap between implied and realized volatility is at its widest since the November 2024 U.S. elections, suggesting that hedging using options is very expensive.

Open Interest of ETH Calls Larger Than Puts

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Put contracts continue to dominate ETH’s options trading volumes, although there has been an increase in call contracts since December’s large expiration. However, the new year has seen a notable decline in realized volatility. In response, options traders have steepened the volatility term structure, yet short-tenor volatility remains over 15 points (at a 30-day tenor) above realized volatility. This divergence is the largest since the pre-election period, when the volatility premium was linked to political uncertainty. Now, without a specific event, traders seem to be anticipating a potential spike in volatility at any moment.

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