Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Jan 8, 2025): Market Braces for Volatility Ahead of Trump’s Inauguration

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

The new year saw BTC's spot price briefly surpass $100K, but this surge faded after the U.S. JOLTS report dampened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025. As a result, risk-on assets, including crypto, lost their early gains. Unlike in previous surges, derivatives market sentiment hasn’t strongly supported this move. Notably, realized volatility in crypto trading was around 20 points lower than the implied volatility from a one-month BTC option, marking the largest volatility premium since the 2024 U.S. elections without a clear event risk.

Lower trade volumes contributed to the drop in realized volatility in perpetuals, although open interest has remained stable. In options, despite a steep volatility term structure, short-tenor implied volatility is significantly higher than the realized volatility observed over the past week.

Please check out the report’s highlights.