Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Jan 29, 2025): Options Market Recovers From Monday’s Sell-Off

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Markets faced a significant risk-off event early this week as DeepSeek's LLM announcement coincided with sharp declines in major indices and crypto markets. Despite the volatile sell-off in spot markets, open interest in perpetual swaps remained stable, with funding rates briefly turning negative before recovering. 

Options markets saw an increase in trading volume during the sell-off, although forward-looking volatility expectations declined. The period of positive funding rates for perpetuals ended due to bearish spot price action on Monday. In the options space, realized volatility fell below implied volatility, reflecting a small-scale repeat of the pre-inauguration term structure inversion. Notably, ETH options maintained a volatility premium over BTC options, while longer-dated volatility smiles exhibited a bullish skew toward out-of-the-money (OTM) calls.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

BTC Open Interest Barely Moves

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Options open interest data shows minimal change over the past week, except for the expiration and reopening of short-dated options. Despite the largest single-day trading volumes in call options this month — nearly $250M during the spot price sell-off — trade volume did not significantly impact volatility, which has declined for both realized and implied metrics. Positioning has split between short- and longer-tenor volatility smiles. Short-tenor options are exhibiting lower volatility and a neutral skew, while longer-dated volatility smiles are reflecting increased volatility expectations and a persistent bullish skew toward OTM calls, as has been the case since the election.

ETH Options Remain Bullish

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

ETH options trading volume has surged over the past week, marking its strongest levels in a month. While late December 2024 and early January 2025 saw robust activity, recent data indicates a more active calls market, with open interest remaining heavily weighted toward calls. The early-week global market sell-off briefly shifted short-tenor ETH volatility smiles away from calls, reminiscent of the volatility term structure inversion seen before the inauguration. Despite ETH's spot recovery being weaker than BTC's, its options have maintained higher volatility levels.

Solana Options Have Solid Open Interest

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Following last week's rally in spot price due to the launch of two presidential meme coins, Solana's price has retreated with the broader crypto market. However, positioning from the rally remains largely unchanged, with open interest in puts and calls remaining elevated and trading activity surpassing pre-rally levels. The stable levels of newly opened put options likely reflect protective buying intended to hedge profitable long positions in other instruments.

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