Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Feb 5, 2025): Record Liquidations Result From Perp; Traders Expect More Volatility in ETH

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events and the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Another week brought another risk-off event in the crypto market, reflecting its correlation with equities. Despite last week's sell-off, BTC outperformed the broader market with a milder decline, evident in its derivatives positioning. Options markets initially priced short-term volatility higher, but the inversion resolved quickly. In contrast, ETH experienced a sharper inversion, with significant spikes in short-term options and realized volatility. A liquidation event led to an estimated $10 billion loss in open interest for perpetual swap contracts, as noted by Bybit CEO Ben Zhou. This bearish sentiment was reflected in funding rates, with altcoins showing a more persistent negative trend post-crash as compared to BTC.

Open interest collapsed across major tokens, flipping funding rates negative, except for BTC. ETH's realized volatility surged above 140%, its highest level in over three months, with the implied volatility term structure spiking and remaining inverted days after the crash.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Open Interest Falls During Painful Liquidation Event

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Another Monday sell-off occurred alongside a decline in U.S. equities and other risk-on assets due to fears over Trump tariffs, leading to a drop in perpetual swap positioning. Nearly $3.1 billion in open interest was wiped out from the perpetual swap markets of BTC, ETH, XRP and SOL after a late-Friday high. This decline was likely driven by liquidated leveraged positions, as traders missed margin calls during the rapid drop in spot prices. Bybit CEO Ben Zhou estimated that the true notional value of liquidated positions across markets may have ranged from $8 billion to $10 billion. The sell-off also triggered the largest spike in trading volumes in over a month, with $31 billion in perpetual swap contracts traded on Feb 2, 2025 across the four major tokens’ markets.

Altcoin Funding Rates in Negative; BTC Clings to Neutral Rates

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

A second consecutive Monday-morning sell-off has kept perpetual swap funding rates low and negative, indicating excess demand for leveraged short exposure. This trend likely stems from the liquidation of long positions, due to the sharp correction in spot prices. Notably, altcoins' funding rates have shown more consistency since February 3, 2024, reflecting their steeper declines as compared to BTC’s.

Traders Expect Spike in ETH Volatility 

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

ETH's spot price experienced a deeper correction than BTC’s during Monday's sell-off, dropping below $2.5K. Surprisingly, options market activity remained steady, likely due to fewer at-risk leveraged long positions to liquidate, thus keeping open interest levels firm. However, the spot move caused realized volatility to spike near 140%, with options markets pricing in a significant term structure inversion that has yet to be resolved. ETH's implied volatility is approximately 15 points higher than BTC's at equivalent tenors, indicating that traders expect continued volatility in ETH's spot price.

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