Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Dec 24, 2024): Volatility Remains Muted Ahead of Friday’s Mega Options Expirations

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

December's end-of-year options expiration is poised to be significant, with over $525 million in options contracts set to expire this Friday (Dec 27, 2024) for BTC and ETH. However, volatility expectations remain low and have been more responsive to recent spot price movements. Realized volatility has surged as spot prices fluctuate within their recent range, yet short-term options haven’t kept pace with this increase. 

While ETH's volatility structure has inverted, BTC's hasn’t reacted similarly after the recent U.S. elections. Additionally, funding rates across cryptocurrencies have shifted into a new market phase, occasionally dipping into negative territory alongside declines in spot prices. In terms of perpetuals , funding rates have moved from neutral to intermittently negative, aligning with spot price movements. Meanwhile, among options, BTC's volatility structure has been less responsive to spot changes, whereas ETH short-term options are exhibiting significant fluctuations at elevated levels. 

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Market Hasn’t Factored in BTC Options Expirations Volatility 

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

For the third time this month, spot prices have shown higher realized volatility than that implied by 1-month-tenor constant maturities. Each occurrence has eventually led to a decline in realized volatility, as implied levels have remained relatively stable. Open interest in BTC options continues to be high, contributing to a significant end-of-year options expiration, with approximately $360 million in put and call contracts set to expire. 

This week nearly marked a full inversion of the at-the-money volatility term structure, highlighted by a spike in front-end volatility on Dec 21, 2024. However, the elevated level of realized volatility hasn’t triggered a similar inversion to that seen with ETH.

ETH Calls Still Transcend Puts

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Realized volatility has surged above implied volatility, as spot prices have fluctuated sharply between $3.2K–$3.6K. After a strong mid-week inversion, the resulting term structure is relatively flat. Despite its changing shape, levels haven’t risen significantly above the range maintained over the past month. As we enter the final week of 2024, open interest remains predominantly in call options, although put options are experiencing the majority of trading activity as the year comes to a close.

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