Our monthly report delves into insights from options volatility to inspire your next crypto move.

: The cryptocurrency market is highly reactive to macroeconomic events, with volatility responding sharply to geopolitical developments, particularly US tariff policies.

: Frequent inversions in the term structure of implied volatility suggest that traders are adjusting their risk perceptions based on immediate market conditions, rather than anticipated events.

: A notable shift toward bearish sentiment is evident, as indicated by a preference for out-of-the-money puts that reflects increased demand among investors for downside protection.

: The market remains cautious, with elevated levels of short-tenor implied volatility indicating expectations of potential future disruptions despite periods of calm.

The cryptocurrency market exhibited pronounced reactive volatility in March 2025, driven primarily by macroeconomic factors, particularly US tariff policies. Implied volatility spiked sharply in response to significant price movements, indicating that market participants were reacting more to immediate news, rather than positioning themselves ahead of expected events. The volatility surged in the wake of US president Donald Trump's tariff announcements, which created a pattern of rapid price fluctuations. This dynamic led to a notable peak in volatility that subsequently collapsed during quieter periods, revealing a market characterized by uncertainty and sensitivity to geopolitical developments.

During this time, Bitcoin's realized volatility has reached unprecedented levels, matching peaks not seen since the previous year’s significant market disruptions. Despite episodes of low realized volatility, short-term implied volatility consistently remained elevated, suggesting that traders were preparing for potential future disruptions, even when immediate volatility appeared subdued. This persistent expectation of volatility reflects an underlying apprehension in the market as participants brace for the potential impacts of ongoing geopolitical tensions and macroeconomic instability.

The analysis of the term structure of implied volatility reveals frequent inversions, a phenomenon whereby short-dated options exhibit higher implied volatility as compared to their longer-dated counterparts. This inversion typically indicates heightened expectations of imminent market events, or a surge in demand for short-dated options in response to sharp market movements. In March 2025, the market experienced multiple instances of such inversions, largely driven by the volatile nature of the underlying asset prices.

These inversions were particularly notable since they occurred in response to actual market conditions, rather than anticipated future events. For instance, the buildup of volatility surrounding the upcoming tariff announcements didn’t reflect the expected risk premiums that had characterized other significant events, such as political elections. Historical comparisons show that previous inversions were often resolved rapidly after the events occurred, unlike the gradual shifts observed in March, suggesting a potential mispricing of risk as market participants grappled with uncertainty in the geopolitical landscape.

The fluctuations in realized volatility during this period oscillated between extremes, highlighting the currently unpredictable nature of market conditions. Sustained high levels of short-tenor implied volatility indicated a reluctance among traders to engage in lower volatility assumptions, reflecting ongoing concerns about potential market disruptions.

Data suggests bears taking the upper hand

A significant shift in market sentiment was evident via the analysis of volatility smiles, particularly the increasing skew toward out-of-the-money puts. This change indicated a growing appetite for downside protection among investors, marking a departure from previous bullish sentiment observed in the market. The shift was particularly pronounced during March, as longer-dated volatility smiles leaned toward OTM puts for the first time since the November 2024 US elections.

Increased demand for put options was driven by a shift in market dynamics following the reversal of a prior bullish rally. As tariff tensions escalated, the market exhibited a clear preference for downside protection, leading to a reevaluation of risk. The analysis reveals that the relative demand for call options hasn’t declined sharply, but instead has gradually decreased, indicating a more cautious outlook among market participants.

This evolving landscape of volatility suggests that the cryptocurrency market is navigating a period of heightened uncertainty shaped by rapid developments in global trade and economic policy. The persistent inversion of the term structure and the pronounced bearish sentiment signal a market preparing for potential volatility spikes. As geopolitical tensions continue to influence market dynamics, the demand for protective options reflects a broader sentiment of caution among investors, underscoring the complexities of navigating the current environment.

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Bybit X Block Scholes options volatility report (March 2025): Huge swing leads to frequent inversions; data suggests traders remain cautious

In this article, we’ll cover the recent gold rally and show you how you can trade gold on Bybit’s platform, including using Gold&FX MT5 and gold-backed crypto Perpetual futures like XAUTUSDT.

 past $3,200 per ounce and reached new all-time highs. This rally has renewed interest in gold trading across both traditional and crypto markets. However, traders in the crypto market traditionally have had to go through a more cumbersome process to gain exposure to gold. 

Bybit's gold trading options are here to change all that — not only simplifying the process but also allowing crypto-natives to trade gold using Tether’s 

. In this article, we’ll cover the recent gold rally and show you the different ways you can trade gold on Bybit’s platform.

Gold rallies to all-time highs amid market uncertainty

There are several fundamental causes behind the current rally in gold prices, the most prominent being increasing geopolitical tensions, escalating trade wars and an overall increase in uncertainty and volatility. In such an environment, gold's role as a safe-haven asset becomes particularly appealing. Investors buy it to protect their capital, and traders begin buying it to benefit from the price movement. 

In addition to retail traders, central bank activity, particularly in Asia, has also played a crucial role. Several central banks, including those in China, India and Russia, have been steadily increasing their gold reserves. This trend reflects a strategic move to diversify their reserves away from the US dollar, driving sustained demand for gold and contributing to its price increase.

Bybit is always seeking to offer new and exciting products to its users, and its gold offerings are no exception. There are currently three ways to gain exposure to gold on Bybit’s platform:

To make gold trading easy for crypto-native traders, Bybit has paired all three instruments against USDT, the largest stablecoin by market cap. Bybit’s Gold&FX trading has 

Let's take a closer look at the three different options and find out how you can use them to trade gold. 

MT5 (short for MetaTrader5) is one of the world's most popular trading platforms. Retail traders can create algorithms to automate their strategies using tools normally reserved for institutional players. In August 2024, Bybit 

 into its platform. Following this integration, Bybit also launched Gold&FX trading for its users. 

 offers three major services: cryptocurrency, forex (FX) and contracts for difference (CFDs). Traders can use CFDs to trade gold. The trades are placed using USDT, and leverage extends all the way up to 500x. In addition to the clean interface and secure trading environment that users have come to expect from Bybit, MT5 also offers several features that are essential for algo trading:

Step-by-step guide for trading gold with Bybit MT5

Before using MT5, traders must first register and open their Bybit MT5 accounts.

Carefully read the Terms and Conditions, and accept by clicking on the box. Then, click on 

Create the Master Password for your Bybit MT5 account. Ensure that the passwords you input match each other before clicking on 

. The creation of an MT5 account requires 

, so if you have yet to verify your Bybit account, you’ll be prompted to complete the verification process.

The system will generate an MT5 Login ID and an investor password, and will display your MT5 account details in a pop-up window.

 to be redirected to the MT5 Dashboard, where you can deposit funds into your Bybit MT5 account to start your trading journey.

Download and install the MT5 Client to your desktop or mobile from the Bybit MT5 page and log in to your trading account.

Choose the gold pair that you want to trade. Currently, there are six different gold pairs available on Bybit MT5.

Choose your preferred pair. You’ll see three options: 

 allows traders to automatically copy positions opened by the Master Trader accounts that they’re following. This allows traders without prior experience to effortlessly replicate the strategies of expert investors across gold and forex. 

 also includes a profit-sharing mechanism whereby the master trader gets a portion of the profit generated by the followers. This makes the process a win-win for everyone involved. 

The major advantage of this type of trading mechanism is its usefulness for beginning traders, who may not have enough expertise to place their own trades, but can automatically copy the trades of others who are registered as Master Traders. On the flip side, the profit and loss of your position will depend entirely upon another trader, and Followers can end up with potential profits or losses accordingly.

Step-by-step guide for trading gold on Bybit MT5

 at the bottom of the card of the Master Trader whom you wish to follow. Followers can copy up to 10 Master Traders simultaneously.

Create your copy trades by entering the amount you want to invest under 

 and set your take-profit/stop-loss (TP/SL) amount.

Once the parameter settings are confirmed, place the check on the agreement acknowledgment box, then click on 

Congratulations! You’ve successfully followed a Master Trader, and your account will now start copying their trades.

In addition to MT5, Bybit also offers two 

 are derivatives that allow traders to speculate on the price movements of crypto assets without a set expiration date. Bybit allows traders to take 

 positions on two such contracts: XAUTUSDT and PAXGUSDT. 

 is a digital token issued by Tether that’s backed by physical gold. Each XAUT token represents indirect ownership of one fine troy ounce of gold, stored in a secure vault in Switzerland. Meanwhile, 

 is issued by Paxos, and is also backed by one fine troy ounce of gold, stored in a vault in London. 

On Bybit, traders can enjoy up to 50x leverage with XAUTUSDT and up to 16.67x leverage on PAXGUSDT. Settlement takes place in USDT, simplifying the profit and loss calculation.

Step-by-step guide for trading XAUTUSDT on Bybit

 and log in with your account details. On the top panel, you can see the 

Below that, there are three panels. The left panel displays the chart, the middle panel displays the order book and the right panel is for placing and canceling orders.

On the right panel, you can choose whether to place a 

 order. You can also choose the order price (for limit orders) and order quantity. 

Once you’ve selected all the details, you can check the value of the trade and the cost in USDT. Confirm the details, and click on 

That's it. You’ve now placed your order. Market orders will get executed immediately, while limit orders will only execute if the spot price reaches the limit price.

Gold acts as a safe haven asset during times of uncertainty, and it could be considered one of the safest assets for long-term investments. Bybit users have a great opportunity to trade gold to gain exposure to its price appreciation or diversify their portfolio. Take a look at the 

 page or check out Bybit’s gold-backed 

. Choose the method that suits you best to capitalize on this incredible gold rally. 

Beginner

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How to trade gold on Bybit using USDT

Apr 14, 2025: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

 explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Weekly highlight — Apple exemptions send crypto higher 

US president Donald Trump’s administration recently exempted smartphones, computers and other electronics from reciprocal tariffs, providing significant relief for major technology manufacturers like Apple and NVIDIA. This move, announced by US Customs and Border Protection, limits the impact of Trump’s 125% tariff on goods from China and baseline 10% global tariff affecting many countries.

The exclusions cover popular electronics, such as smartphones, laptops, hard drives and memory chips, typically not domestically produced. This decision is welcome news for consumers who feared rising prices due to potential tariffs. It also benefits major tech companies that have made substantial investment pledges in the US domestic markets to the Trump administration.

The tariff reprieve marks a noteworthy easing in Trump's trade conflict with China, effective retroactively from April 5. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt emphasized that America must not depend upon China for critical technologies, highlighting the president's efforts to secure substantial investments from leading tech firms to bolster domestic manufacturing. 

However, the reprieve may be temporary. The exclusions stem from an initial order designed to prevent cumulative tariffs on specific sectors. While certain semiconductor manufacturing equipment is excluded, the announcement doesn’t cover the 20% tariff targeting China, aimed at addressing fentanyl shipments.

Analysts note that while this exemption is a win for the tech industry, uncertainty remains regarding future tariffs. The administration is poised to further investigate semiconductor imports, potentially leading to new tariffs in the coming weeks. As negotiations evolve, other countries may seek similar exceptions, complicating the trade landscape. 

Overall, while this announcement offers temporary relief, the future of tariffs remains uncertain as the administration continues its aggressive trade policies.

Weekly crypto highlight — Bitcoin has its role to play amid volatility

The concept of "safe haven" assets, traditionally represented by gold and government bonds, is being challenged in today’s volatile markets. For decades, investors relied on a classic portfolio structure of 60% equities and 40% bonds, with capital flowing into gold and government bonds during market downturns. These assets were seen as stable and reliable, ideal for safeguarding against volatility. However, in a world marked by constant market activity, geopolitical unrest and rising skepticism toward governments, the definition of a safe-haven asset may require reevaluation.

Enter Bitcoin, a highly volatile and often misunderstood asset. Despite skepticism from many investors, Bitcoin has significantly outperformed traditional safe-haven assets since the COVID-19 market lows, rising over 1,000% since March 2020. In contrast, long-duration bonds have dropped by 50%, and gold, while up 90% over five years, appears less impressive when adjusted for monetary inflation.

However, Bitcoin's status as a safe haven remains debated. During various risk-off events, it’s behaved more like a high-beta asset than a protective hedge. For instance, in March 2020, BTC fell 40%, while the Nasdaq-100 dropped 27%. But during the recent tariff-led sell-off in April 2025, Bitcoin held up better than the Nasdaq-100, suggesting emerging strength.

Non-sovereign assets like Bitcoin could thrive amid geopolitical tensions, given their decentralized, censorship-resistant nature. Traditional safe havens like gold and long-duration bonds are losing their luster, with gold’s gains overshadowed by monetary expansion and rising yields on Treasury bonds.

As Bitcoin continues to demonstrate resilience, it may challenge the notion of what constitutes a safe haven. While it may not fit the classic definition of a low-volatility asset, its durability, neutrality and liquidity make it increasingly relevant in today’s financial landscape. Thus, the traditional playbook for safe-haven assets may need an update.

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Weekly Institutional Insights: Apple exemptions send crypto higher; Bitcoin’s role to challenge gold

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

After initially resisting US president Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, crypto markets joined the global sell-off, with BTC falling from $87K on April 2 to a low of $74K. BTC’s term structure was inverted again before easing, while ETH’s term structure remained inverted. Meanwhile, short-term BTC volatility skews favored OTM puts, reflecting more bearish sentiment than during the Q1 2023 US banking crisis. However, volatility levels decreased after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs (excluding those on China), leading to a significant rally in spot prices.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

BTC open interest declined substantially this week

Bybit’s largest perpetual swap markets initially remained stable during the broader market sell-off and tariff reactions, recovering from the dip after the 

. However, Trump’s recent announcement and subsequent pause of near-unilateral import tariffs significantly impacted these markets, leading to notable declines in open interest for BTC and ETH, which have fallen sharply from their late March highs.

After a brief period of positive funding rates, BTC’s perpetual swap market fluctuated between positive and negative sentiment, indicating traders were hesitant to commit to a strong directional move (similar to trends in options markets). This changed when President Trump announced a 90-day tariff relief, leading to positive jumps in funding rates. Altcoins displayed a similar pattern, with funding rates alternately positive and negative before rising following the tariff announcement.

During the April 6–7, 2025 sell-off, traders sought downside protection, as BTC's spot price fell to $75K in reaction to President Trump’s tariff announcement. The high volume of put options relative to calls indicates strong demand for this protection. Meanwhile, the US's reciprocal tariffs caused a significant inversion in BTC’s at-the-money volatility term structure, which, although it has eased, remains inverted. Additionally, there‘s a stronger skew toward OTM puts at short tenors as compared to the March 2023 US banking crisis. Put open interest has surged over the past week, reflecting extremely bearish sentiment for both the near and long terms.

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Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (Apr 9, 2025): Tariffs bring substantial volatility at a level similar to that of the Q1 2023 US banking crisis

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The trading volume of Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has finally begun to surpass Bitcoin, notwithstanding entering the side-stepping phase after a 12% plummet on Monday.

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The trading volume of Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap, has finally begun to surpass Bitcoin, notwithstanding entering the side-stepping phase after a 12% plummet on Monday. However, this may not have come as a surprise to many, who expected Ether to overtake Bitcoin in its use-case during the DeFi summer of 2020.

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