Bitcoin Sees Support at $20k as RSI Shows Oversold Signal

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Written By: Marcus Wang

Edited By: Charmyn Ho

Macro and Overall Risk Sentiment

U.S. equities saw a volatile week, where Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks sent the probability of a 50bps rate hike in March to 60.2% as of the time of writing. Meanwhile, the crypto market followed suit, with both BTCUSDT and ETHUSDT shedding 15.1% and 13.9%, respectively, in the past week.

BTCUSDT Perpetual

Bitcoin has broken down from the trendline that has formed since November 2022, facing support at $20k, the key psychological level. The daily RSI has fallen into an oversold level last seen in November 2022, where FTX’s fallout sent jitters into the market. On a bright note, the magnitude of Silvergate’s debacle is unlikely comparable to FTX’s and is not related to any human-made manipulation but only losses of key clients.

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ETHUSDT Perpetual

Similarly, Ether broke down from its 100-day EMA with no clear support in sight. The weighted average funding rate across major exchanges has turned negative with spiking long liquidations, suggesting the bullish trend formed since November has likely been reversed. Meanwhile, the delay of the Shanghai upgrade and the hype around liquid staking has subsided. Ether may face strong selloff pressures when it gets closer to the upgrade completion, a phenomenon that we have observed from last September’s Merge.

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