Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

At the start of the week, Bitcoin showed signs of decoupling from US equities. However, US president Trump's positive remarks about the US-China trade war (which had included a 145% tariff on Chinese goods) triggered a relief rally across markets. As a result, BTC has resumed moving up with US equities. 

This rally has led to a rise in short-tenor implied volatility and a recovery in BTC’s put-call skew, indicating that traders are seeking upside exposure.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Perp open interest rises across the board

Perpetual open interest increased significantly this week across various tokens, especially ETH. Perpetual trading volumes also rose. Notably, Ap 7, 2025 recorded the highest trade volume of the month, following Trump's comment, "Forget markets for a second, we have all the advantages."

BTC option open interest shows a mixed picture; put-call skew in short tenor sends positive signals

President Trump’s recent willingness to negotiate a trade deal with China’s President Xi triggered a relief rally across asset classes, including crypto. Bitcoin had already risen 7% since Apr 21, 2025, prior to Trump's comments. Despite this rally, open interest in puts has outpaced calls, with options volume remaining relatively balanced. 

It's unclear if the demand for puts reflects a hedge against downside risks, or a bet against the upward movement. Meanwhile, perpetual funding rates are providing limited insight into sentiment. However, the recovery of the put-call skew at short tenors indicates that traders are seeking upside exposure to the rally — and are willing to pay for it.

ETH unexpectedly outperforms BTC in this relief rally

ETH's response to the recent crypto market recovery has diverged from previous trends: it outperformed BTC in spot prices, a rarity in past rallies, and open interest in calls exceeds that in puts — opposite to BTC's trend. In addition, ETH call open interest is nearly double that of puts, with calls dominating options volumes. This suggests traders anticipate ETH will reduce its significant underperformance against both BTC and other “ETH killers” like SUI and SOL. Additionally, the spot rally has led to another term structure inversion for ETH.

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Bybit X Block Scholes crypto derivatives analytics report (Apr 24, 2025): Put-call skew recovers at short tenors, showing reviving sentiment

Explore all the hottest Bybit events happening during the week of TOKEN2049 Dubai in this article.

It’s that time of year again — TOKEN2049 Dubai is back, and the city is buzzing with excitement. As one of the most anticipated events on the crypto calendar, it’s not just about the main conference; it’s about everything happening around it, too. From side events and workshops to exclusive mixers and demo days, Bybit is showing up in full force this year. Here's your inside look at what to expect during this action-packed week.

The heart of TOKEN2049 Week, TOKEN2049 Dubai promises two full days of future-facing discussions and innovation in the world of crypto. At the center of it all is Bybit’s immersive booth experience, built on the theme 

. It’s not just a theme — it’s a vibe. Picture claw machines, 

If you’re heading to TOKEN2049 Dubai, be sure to drop by the Bybit booth (located at P33) and chat with our extraordinary Bybit team! And don’t miss your chance to grab a gacha token by scanning our QR code with Bybit Pay. You could walk away with exclusive Bybit merch! 

DMCC x VARA: Crypto regulations and business growth

Policy meets progress at this exclusive evening event co-hosted by DMCC and VARA. This gathering brings together regulators and industry leaders for an open discussion on the future of digital asset compliance and business growth in the region.

You can expect sharp insights, candid perspectives and forward-thinking dialogue about what it really takes to scale a crypto business in a regulated environment. If you care about the future of web3 in the UAE, this is one event to mark on your calendar.

Bybit After Hours: Exclusive Insights & Networking 

 is a private cocktail evening for top-tier traders and long-time supporters of Bybit. This event is equal parts networking, knowledge sharing and celebration.

 to strategic conversations with the Bybit team, this night is tailored to those who trade big and think bigger. With an invite-only guest list, it’s set to be one of the most exclusive experiences of the week.

The Crypto Hub x Bybit Crypto Ark Demo Day

 is all about bringing hands-on energy to the web3 scene. Hosted at the Crypto Ark inside Bybit’s office, this event welcomes founders, devs and crypto creatives for a casual evening of product showcases, idea exchange and light networking.

While Bybit provides the space, the real spotlight is on the community — those shaping the next wave of innovation in web3.

 from across the CIS region are gathering for a deep dive into the tools, tips and strategies that drive growth at Bybit. This meetup goes beyond surface-level sharing — expect actionable workshops covering our Bybit Affiliate program and affiliate best practices.

It’s also a chance to hear directly from Bybit product leads and regional managers, share success stories and walk away with fresh ideas to maximize conversions. 

Wunderbit x Bybit: “Hey, Trading Bot, where is my profit?”

 are here to stay — and this event is going deep into what makes them tick. Co-hosted by Wunderbit and Bybit, the evening workshop blends honest stories from real traders with expert insights on how to avoid common automation pitfalls.

From bot setups that work to the ones that quietly drain your profits, this is your chance to ask the tough questions, hear unfiltered answers — and maybe rethink how you’re running your own bot strategy.

 (RWAs) are taking center stage at the RWA Gulf Summit, a high-powered event co-hosted by Qatar National Bank, Commercial Bank International and DMZ Finance. This summit brings together bank leaders, wealth funds, participants in DIFC, institutional investors and industry pioneers to explore the evolution of tokenized finance in the Middle East and beyond.

Bybit’s Head of Financial Products Jerry Li will take the stage to discuss how 

 (CEXs) can harness RWAs for enhanced yield and 

Dubai's Pinnacle Mixer: Mantle, Mirana, Bybit and Ethena

High above the city, this mixer brings together some of the biggest names in web3 — Mantle, Mirana, Bybit and Ethena. Expect an unforgettable evening of casual chats, cross-chain connections and cocktails with the minds behind some of today’s most innovative projects.

This private event is all about experiencing Bybit Pay in action. See interactive demos, grab a sneak peek at upcoming partnerships and network over bites and drinks. It’s a rare behind-the-scenes look at the way Bybit is shaping the future of crypto payments. 

Wrapping up the week is the Bybit Institutional Symposium — a full-day event dedicated to aligning strategies with institutional clients and forging new collaborations. From macro views to product deep-dives, this conference is built to spark big conversations among serious players.

The day concludes with a gala dinner, a fitting finale to a week in which ideas, connections and innovation have taken center stage.

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Bybit Learn Highlights What to Expect at Bybit

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Highlights: What to expect at Bybit (Apr 28–May 2, 2025)

Balance (EPT) is revolutionizing web3 gaming with evolving AI companions, blending blockchain, strategy, and intelligent gameplay in one powerful platform.

Artificial intelligence (AI) agents are a key growth area within the blockchain industry. Projects like Artificial Superintelligence Alliance (FET), 

 (AI16Z) and countless others have been essential components driving the overall crypto market. As of April 2025, the CoinGecko portal lists more than 500 cryptocurrencies within its category of AI Agents. These intelligent assistants are now helping individuals and businesses analyze markets, create textual and visual content, automate work processes and trade profitably.

There's a further area where AI agents on the blockchain are flourishing: the world of 

 gaming. In this sphere, bots and agents based on AI algorithms are helping users develop the best in-game strategies, succeed in the competitive world of play-to-earn (P2E) and overcome key challenges in complex gameplay.

Balance (EPT) is a blockchain gaming project that takes the use of 

 to a completely new level. The creation of the team at the world’s largest social gaming platform, E-Pal, Balance offers players AI agents that can aid them in the in-game environment and serve as their personal companions. Based on a multi-layer architecture, the platform offers some of the most cutting-edge use cases for gaming-oriented AI agents.

 (EPT) is a web3 gaming platform that allows players to easily create, own and use AI companions within the blockchain games it supports.

 Balance supports a variety of first-party (internally developed) and third-party web3 games. You can deploy your AI gaming companions and they’ll act as your assistants, friends or co-players within Balance games.

Using Balance.fun, the platform’s primary web interface, you can create your AI agents and specify various details, such as appearance, personality and functions.

Balance isn’t just another obscure crypto gaming platform. The origins of the project date back to 2020, when the E-Pal social gaming provider was launched by four young California-based technology entrepreneurs — Brian Xiong, Tung Pham, Yuzhe Norris Wang and Yuanzhe Li. E-Pal quickly became a leading force in the newly emerging social gaming field, helping players worldwide find gaming companions. By early 2024, E-Pal had become the world’s largest gaming companion platform, boasting 4.2 million users and 450,000 Epals (gaming companions).

In February 2024, the E-Pal team focused its efforts on 

 and AI technologies, starting the development work on the Balance gaming platform. In September of the same year, Balance went live.

Per the project’s documentation, the platform operates on its own chain, Balance Chain, with 

 (AA) technology used for cross-chain communication. The fungible and 

 (NFTs) held by user accounts are based on the 

A key part of the Balance ecosystem is Key Nodes — purchasable 

 that help with the processing, storage and distribution of data required in the resource-intensive environment of web3 gaming. Some applied instances are the management of real-time leaderboards and the automatic distribution of loot and in-game currency. These nodes can also support the computational requirements of training AI models. As a reward for their work in supporting the platform’s operations, Key Nodes receive a wide range of rewards and benefits, including distributions of EPT tokens, the platform’s native cryptocurrency.

As the ecosystem develops, Key Nodes are envisioned to be involved in governance, 

 launch in September 2024, Balance introduced its Points System, designed to reward early contributors to the platform. During the campaign run in September, users could earn points by completing various specified tasks in various activities, such as joining the project’s social media pages or commenting and reposting.

The 400 users with the best performance in the Points System earned a whitelist spot to receive Pioneer Badge NFTs — distinct tokens that provide owners with early access to games, future campaigns, airdrops and beta testing opportunities. Pioneer Badge NFT holders can also enjoy other benefits, such as premium NFTs and voting rights on the Balance platform.

Balance’s platform provides a set of tools to create and use intelligent companions for Balance-based games. You can design your AI companions by specifying their key traits and behaviors through custom prompts and strategies. The AI agents on Balance can assist you in battles, gaming contests, learning, routine task execution and interactive entertainment.

Balance’s platform is made up of five key layers, each one serving a specific purpose in supporting its user and developer communities. At the top of the architectural stack is the application layer, which acts as the main interface for users to interact with human and AI companions and the wider Balance community.

The application layer also contains the AI Battle Reporting System, which is designed to give users feedback and analysis tools on their performance in the platform’s gaming ecosystem. AI technology is leveraged here to provide personalized analytics and performance improvement recommendations.

A range of NFTs are also part of the layer. These include in-game asset NFTs, as well as 

 (SBTs) that serve as summaries of the holder’s achievements.

The platform layer hosts the various games within the Balance gaming universe. These include both internal games and third-party games that have partnered with Balance. The key concept uniting all of the games is the active integration of AI companions and AI players, making the platform a unique environment in which humans and AI agents play, interact and compete.

The platform layer also features an AI-driven NFT launchpad that offers a rich tool set for creating personalized NFTs for games and applications. These NFTs can be traded on Balance's NFT marketplace, which is also an integral part of the platform layer.

The protocol layer includes a trio of critical protocols — the Fans Protocol, Epal Fan Token (FT) Exchange Protocol and Asset Protocol. The Fans Protocol lets players launch and manage their Fan Tokens, creating opportunities for influencers and community builders to tokenize their efforts and launch high-potential crypto assets. Meanwhile, the Epal FT Exchange Protocol facilitates the management of (and trade in) Fan Tokens.

The third protocol, Asset, is used for the comprehensive management of a wide range of digital assets on Balance, providing easy-to-use tools for asset creation and trading.

The token layer is designed for core operations involving the platform’s native EPT token. This layer supports the use of EPT for in-game purchases, access to services and AI companions, Fan Token minting and trading, in addition to other functionalities.

This is the underlying infrastructural layer that powers the platform’s operational mechanism. It can be described as Balance's operating system, and is made up of several critical components: the node system, the Balance 

, the Balance Chain network and the platform's unique ID system.

The node system provides the computational and storage resources to power games and other functionality on Balance. In addition, the system acts as a key connecting medium between Balance Chain and the AA functionality that lets the platform enjoy cross-chain capabilities.

The Balance stablecoin, also part of the infra layer, is designed to reduce volatility and bring rate stability to the platform's gaming ecosystem. The Balance stablecoin system helps players engage in asset trading without the fear of wild market fluctuations, an important consideration in the 

Designed to support multiple chains, Balance Chain operates based on dynamic protocol adaptation, automatically selecting the optimal blockchain platform according to user preferences and needs. This dynamic adaptability is designed to reduce costs, improve operational speed and enhance overall security for users.

The final major component of the Balance infrastructure layer, the Balance ID system, is a unified and secure user authentication and identity management solution. To be introduced later in 2025, the ID system will let users access all services and games within the Balance ecosystem via a single set of cross-platform decentralized credentials. In addition to human players, also AI companions will have their unique IDs.

EPT is the native cryptocurrency of Balance. Although the platform has been operational since 2024, the EPT token was just launched on Apr 21, 2025, with a total and maximum supply of 10 billion. It was issued on two major blockchains — Ethereum and BNB Chain. EPT has a wide range of functional use cases on the platform, including the following:

The EPT token's supply allocation is per the chart below.

 as a swap pair with USDT, and through the exchange's 

 based on USDT. You can also take advantage of Bybit’s campaign dedicated to the token to grab a share of the 

Under the terms of the event, new users can earn EPT rewards by accumulating a deposit volume of at least 3,000 EPT, or by depositing at least 100 USDT and trading 100 USDT worth of EPT via their first spot trade with Bybit. Meanwhile, existing users can qualify for rewards by trading at least 500 USDT worth of EPT on Spot. The event is valid through May 5, 2025, 9AM UTC.

As of Apr 25, 2025, the EPT token has been on the market for only four days, and is trading at $0.0117, which is 26.4% lower than its ATH of $0.01708 on Apr 21, 2025, and 11.4% higher than its ATL of $0.01129 on Apr 22, 2025.

Long-term price forecasts for EPT are mostly bullish. DigitalCoinPrice 

 of $0.0412 in 2027 and $0.0615 in 2030, whilePricePrediction 

These and other emerging long-term forecasts for the token don't constitute investment advice. Given EPT's extremely short history on the market so far, 

 on the token's future prospects, carefully assess market fluctuations within the crypto gaming niche and consider all other relevant factors before investing in it or any other cryptocurrency.

Capturing emerging market trends and sensing the broader market conditions, the team at E-Pal recognized the tremendous potential of gaming companions back in 2020. Four years later, E-Pal realized that the new market dynamics in gaming called for something even more innovative — the use of AI companions, in addition to fellow humans. The resulting product, the Balance platform, is now racing to stake the claim to the best web3 gaming environment supported by AI agents.

The platform's unique features — cross-chain functionality supported by an AA mechanism, a dynamic exchange system that selects the best network for users' transactions and, most importantly, intelligent AI companions — can certainly help establish Balance as a leader in this niche of web3 gaming.

AI agents are taking the gaming industry by storm, with blockchain technology acting as a powerful enabler of these intelligent friends of ours. The Balance gaming universe — supported by the proven track record of E-Pal — has a great chance of becoming the go-to environment in which to befriend your next artificial gaming partner.

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Balance (EPT): Revolutionizing web3 gaming with evolving AI companions

Mantle has launched the Mantle Index Four (MI4), an institutional-grade fund providing diversified exposure to yield-bearing digital assets. 

The S&P 500 rose 2.03% on strong Alphabet earnings and optimism over a possible Fed rate cut. Gold jumped 1.5% to $3,338 as trade tensions rose and a weaker dollar, along with falling yields, boosted demand. Fed rate cut signals also supported the rally. The Coindesk Indices, which tracks the broader crypto market, rose 0.74%, with Bitcoin up 0.06% and Ether down 1.89%, in the past 24 hours. Trade these markets and more with up to 500x leverage on Bybit MT5 using this 

Today's top performer is INIT, up 15.4%, following the launch of Initia, which aims to revive the appchain concept with an interconnected network and an INIT token airdrop.

Initia (INIT), founded in 2022, is a modular blockchain platform that combines a Layer 1 network with customizable Layer 2 rollups, enabling scalable decentralized app development. It offers flexibility in virtual machines, gas tokens, and transaction systems, while ensuring interoperability and addressing issues like liquidity fragmentation and network congestion. Initia has 

 to revive the appchain concept by offering a network that integrates appchains in a cohesive, interconnected way. The platform emphasizes full-stack control for apps, avoiding fragmentation. Initia is also launching an airdrop with claims available until May 24, 2025. The native token, INIT, has a fixed supply of 1 billion, distributed across eight categories.

Check out the latest prices, charts, and data of 

, an institutional-grade fund providing diversified exposure to yield-bearing digital assets. In partnership with Securitize, which has tokenized over $3B in assets, the fund aims to fill a market gap by offering native yield generation in a traditional fund format. Mantle Treasury has committed up to $400M as the anchor investment. The fund will rebalance quarterly and incorporate DeFi-native staking strategies, such as mETH and bbSOL, while ensuring investor protections. MI4 targets both crypto-native and traditional investors, with Phase 1 rollout scheduled for Q2 2025.

Yesterday, BTC spot ETFs saw a total inflow of $114.7 million, all from non-GBTC funds, while GBTC recorded no flow.

Dolomite, the 10th largest DeFi lending app, is launching a 200M token 

 (20% of total supply) during its TGE on April 24, rewarding users based on platform usage. The DOLO token powers a three-token system alongside oDOLO and veDOLO, enabling incentives, governance, and potential revenue sharing. With over $800M in TVL, Dolomite expands to Berachain, integrating with its Proof of Liquidity system to offer advanced lending features and asset utility.

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Mantle launches MI4 fund for institutional-grade digital asset exposure and yield generation

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Can the current sky high prices of speculative cryptocurrencies really go higher? Learn how to manage your risk with the greater fool theory.

Around the world, global markets have been awash with liquidity as central banks and governments promote quantitative easing. In some cases, central banks are 

 in purchasing market securities. This flood of money has generally led to higher asset prices across markets, with 

. Higher asset prices can also be attributable to the greater fool theory, as investors keep selling overpriced assets to other investors (the greater fools). In this article, we’ll examine the greater fool theory and evaluate whether it’s a sound investing strategy.

The greater fool theory states that investors in a bullish market can earn positive returns by betting on an asset without regard to its fundamentals, because someone else (a “greater fool”) will buy it from them at a higher price. 

Investors acting in accordance with this theory ignore intrinsic valuations and fundamentals of assets — even if those assets are overpriced — because they expect to profit when another investor (the greater fool) is willing to pay even more. 

What drives a friendly fool to snap up these overpriced assets, sometimes to their disadvantage? Take meme coins, for example. A crypto wallet that bought $8,000 worth of 

 tokens last year is currently valued at $5.4 billion. The meme cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high on the 28th of October 2021 — a price appreciation of over 2,000,000% since the wallet bought the first Shiba Inu. For a token that originally started as somewhat of a joke, Shiba Inu may seem incredibly overpriced. It’s hard to argue that the pricing is in line with any intrinsic value. 

These meme coins thrive on internet-fueled hype, and on the fear of missing out (FOMO). They typically have a sturdy army of devoted followers who popularize the tokens and create a cult-like following online. Once an asset price starts to pump, and more people recount how much profit they’ve made, those who haven’t yet bought jump on the bandwagon, no matter how irrational it may be to do so.

Multi-level-marketing schemes (MLMs) are real-world examples of the greater fool theory in practice. Existing members of MLMs are rewarded by selling products to new members they find, who in turn have to find more fresh buyers. 

A speculative bubble is a sharp increase in asset prices far above what its underlying fundamentals can account for. This situation usually happens because of an exceedingly optimistic outlook about an asset’s price for the future. The speculation and resulting activity which follow push trading volumes higher. As the exaggerated expectations draw in more investors, demand exceeds supply, pushing the price increasingly beyond the asset’s intrinsic value.

Eventually, the bubble bursts, and the asset comes crashing down as investors panic and sell their positions. The greater fool theory is the underlying principle behind speculative bubbles — and it’s also what keeps them going.

Pros and Cons of Using the Greater Fool Theory

Applying the greater fool theory to crypto markets can potentially give you strong returns. You can only be assured of success if you’ve mastered timing the market. Since a price correction is inevitable, and the bubble will eventually burst, the key to using this strategy is exiting a trade early so you won’t be caught holding the bag — as the last fool.

While it is possible to make good returns using the principle of the greater fool, it’s risky — and there are other ways to achieve excellent long-term performance. 

The first problem is that greater fools are often after assets which are trending. They aren’t interested in stable performers with solid fundamentals, but rather in what’s hot right now. As a result, they tend to be impatient with any asset that slows or cools off, even if it’s for a moment. These trend-chasing investors will jump ship at the first sign of trouble, moving on to the next token that makes the headlines. The issue here is that you could be the one left holding the bag when they go.

The crypto market is volatile by nature. A rise in asset prices is usually followed by a fall. So, the second problem of using the greater fool theory is timing — you have no way of knowing when a price correction will start. If you’ve played the wrong hand, you could end up as the greatest fool.

Lastly, using the greater fool theory is time-consuming. To successfully use this strategy, you must be very attentive since prices change rapidly. It’s best to constantly scan the markets, several times a day. This requires a significant investment of time, energy and discipline. Having the speculative and market trend expertise of a full-time day trader could help. 

At the end of the day, using this strategy is like playing hot potato with a grenade. Even though it’s possible to make money, you’re also taking on a fair bit of risk. 

The Greater Fool Theory in Action: Meme Coins

The greater fool theory approach to investing is dependent on someone purchasing your assets for more than you paid, without any fundamental reason for doing so. 

Nothing illustrates this phenomenon better than the spike of 

As of October 30, 2021, Dogecoin had returned 17.79% and 45% in the previous 7 and 30 days, respectively. Even more impressive, Shiba Inu had returned more than 900% over the previous 30 days, becoming one of the top ten traded cryptocurrencies. Its 

 reached $39 billion. The value of Shiba Inu also briefly surpassed that of the 8-year-old 

, which is largely considered its “father.”

Both coins have little underlying value — and yet, they’re making waves and creating crypto millionaires. Although they started as fun projects, they quickly evolved to become a way to make fast returns on investments. 

, and have strong online communities of fans who are active on social media. Social media influencers champion this type of speculation on TikTok, Twitter, and Reddit, etc. People buy because they hope that other people will buy at a higher price from them.

For example, a key factor which helped launch Shiba Inu 

 was a tweet by Tesla founder Elon Musk, in which he shared an image of the Shiba Inu coin on October 18 of this year. Before the tweet, the coin was trading at $0.000026, and afterward, the price jumped to an all-time high of $0.00008456

However, meme coins cannot survive indefinitely based on celebrity endorsement and internet hype alone. Since they have little intrinsic value and no real-life applications, a bubble burst is highly possible. You could experience massive returns — or significant losses, depending on when you jump in or out.

How to Protect Yourself Against Speculative Bubble Bursts

If your strategy is based on the greater fool theory, then you’re fine with buying overpriced assets and selling them for a profit just because “someone will always pay more” (or so you think). Just be aware that you could lose a great deal of money.

A speculative bubble is a fragile one, and buying an overvalued asset without regard to its fundamental value could leave you exposed when the bubble eventually collapses. The sell-off triggers a sharp dip in the asset’s price, and you’ll lose a lot of money if you’re left with no one to sell to.

However, there are several ways to cut your losses if you’re caught up in a crypto bubble.

The greater fool theory’s strategy is a risky one, and is not generally recommended. Successfully implementing a greater fool strategy takes time, effort — and quite a bit of luck. You may also have to pay an excessive amount of attention to the markets, since prices can — and do — change instantly.

Although playing the crypto market based on the greater fool theory could potentially be profitable, there’s also a good chance you could end up being the greater fool. If no other fool shows up, you’ll be left holding the bag.

The Greater Fool Theory: Foolproof Strategy, or Bubble Waiting To Pop?

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