Bybit x FXStreet Commodity Report: Crude oil rallies 20% in June as conflict and tariffs drive volatility

Key Highlights:

• Oil is up 20% since the start of June 2025, trading higher amid geopolitical risk and supply uncertainty

• Long-term trend still pressured by lower highs and lower lows (since 2023)

• July 8–9 tariff deadlines and August 12 China deadline threaten demand outlook

• OPEC decision looms for July 15, with Iran’s production a key variable

• Technical resistance seen near $77–$80, with bullish breakout possible above $80

• Fibonacci targets: $64 support, upside targets at $83 and $91 if conflict escalates and tariffs ease

• Traders brace for volatility as conflict and policy risks intensify

Trade with Bybit TradFi here on the crude oil rally.

Introduction: Oil as the most volatile major commodity

Oil remains the most volatile major commodity in global markets, frequently moving 5% or more in a single session. This makes it one of the most dynamic instruments for active traders, with geopolitical shocks and policy announcements causing rapid price swings.