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Key Highlights:
Oil is up 20% since the start of June 2025, trading higher amid geopolitical risk and supply uncertainty
Long-term trend still pressured by lower highs and lower lows (since 2023)
July 8–9 tariff deadlines and August 12 China deadline threaten demand outlook
OPEC decision looms for July 15, with Iran’s production a key variable
Technical resistance seen near $77–$80, with bullish breakout possible above $80
Fibonacci targets: $64 support, upside targets at $83 and $91 if conflict escalates and tariffs ease
Traders brace for volatility as conflict and policy risks intensify
Trade with Bybit TradFi here on the crude oil rally.
Oil remains the most volatile major commodity in global markets, frequently moving 5% or more in a single session. This makes it one of the most dynamic instruments for active traders, with geopolitical shocks and policy announcements causing rapid price swings.
For example, Friday, June 13 marked the biggest single-day gain for oil since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, following escalation of the Israel-Iran conflict.
More than any other commodity, oil responds to both demand and supply drivers with supply often shaped by OPEC policy and geopolitical events. In 2025, that volatility has only intensified as conflict risks and tariff deadlines come together.
Oil supply remains flexible and centrally managed by OPEC+, a coalition of producers led by Saudi Arabia and including Russia, the UAE and Iran. Together, they account for over 35% of global oil output.
While earlier forecasts still apply, Iran’s deepening conflict with Israel could influence OPEC’s upcoming production decision on July 15. If Iran signals reduced output due to security risks, prices may rise further, especially if the group delays output increases.
Traders will be watching closely for unexpected changes from key producers like Iran and Saudi Arabia, as these could drive sharp shifts in market sentiment.
Oil demand remains highly sensitive to trade policy. As of mid-June 2025, no progress has been made on key tariff negotiations with Germany, Japan, Canada and other partners, even as the critical July 8–9 deadlines approach.
The August 12 China deadline has shown some progress, with recent meetings in London raising hopes. But uncertainty remains high. Traders recall April’s sharp oil sell-off, a 22% drop in just days, following Trump’s tariff announcement.
Tariffs slow economic activity and reduce energy demand. If upcoming deadlines result in renewed trade friction, oil’s upward momentum could reverse.
Looking at the daily chart of WTI crude, several key signals stand out:
The medium-term trend since September 2023 has produced lower highs and lower lows, with highs at $94 (September 2023), $87 (April 2024), $84 (July 2024), $80 (January 2025) and $77 (June 2025).
Lows were observed at $67 (December 2023), $65 (September 2024) and $55 (April–May 2025).
The Bollinger Bands® were breached during the Israel–Iran flare-up, but easing tensions could return prices toward the middle band, near the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement at $64.
If tensions persist, a retest of the June ($77) and January ($80) highs becomes likely.
A breakout above $80 would be technically significant, marking the end of the lower-high pattern, and could open the door toward the following prices:
$83 (2.618 Fibonacci extension)
$91 (longer-term Fibonacci level)
The relative strength index(RSI) currently shows resistance between 68 and 74. A bullish trigger — such as tariff relief, or a rise in supply risk — could push the RSI beyond 70, supporting a move toward $80 and above.
Oil has rallied 20% since the beginning of June 2025, fueled in part by supply concerns and elevated geopolitical risk. While the Israel–Iran conflict isn’t the only driver, it remains a primary factor in the market’s recent strength.
The current conflict is significantly different from past regional flare-ups. Rather than a short-lived exchange, the situation has evolved into a more prolonged and open-ended standoff, with significant implications for energy markets. Any pause in hostilities is likely to be temporary, with the potential for renewed escalation always in play.
This dynamic has positioned oil as a safe-haven asset for many traders. At the same time, the broader market reaction has been relatively modest so far, suggesting that much of the risk isn’t yet fully priced in. If diplomatic efforts fail or the conflict deepens, oil could respond with sharper moves in the sessions ahead.
Crude oil trades through two major benchmarks:
WTI crude: U.S.-produced oil priced on NYMEX
Brent crude: Global benchmark sourced from Europe, Africa and the Middle East
Brent typically carries a premium, due to transport and production costs. While the two benchmarks are closely correlated, WTI tends to reflect domestic U.S. dynamics, while Brent is more exposed to Middle East risks and global flow disruptions.
Oil has gained 20% month-to-date, powered by geopolitical risk, OPEC uncertainty and trade policy suspense. With the OPEC meeting on July 15, tariff decisions due in early July and Iran’s role under scrutiny, volatility is set to remain elevated.
Technically, $64 remains the key support level. A decisive move above $80 would signal bullish continuation, with $83 and $91 in sight if the macro picture aligns.
For now, oil remains one of the most opportunity-rich markets as we head into a critical global summer.