Bulls Over Bears?

Chart of the Day

Despite only recently hitting an all-time high of $69k on Nov. 10, 2021, the price of BTC has since been in a downward trend, even dipping below the $56k level at some point. However, several on-chain metrics do reveal that a reversal in trends may be on the horizon, at least in the mid-term. First, the BTC fund flow ratio for all exchanges continues to trend down, while BTC exchange reserves are also consistently setting new lows. This is in spite of intermittent spikes in BTC transfers being recorded on a constant basis. When these data points are viewed in tandem, it becomes clear that the BTC whales are not looking to distribute their holdings to the retail masses just yet, and are either accumulating with conviction, or at the most extreme — selling to other whales off-exchanges, an action that is unlikely to affect the price of BTC as much as if they were to sell off on exchanges. Next, while any large option expiries will likely put most investors on high alert, the impending $3b expiry may not be as bearish as some people might think. Despite BTC being on a downtrend for most of the past two weeks, BTC call options still largely dominate today's expiry. The call-to-put ratio currently stands at 2.13, a strong bullish indicator. That said, whether the expiry will ultimately favor the BTC bulls is still heavily contingent on whether BTC's price can hold at current levels. A decent drop in BTC's price will still possibly wipe out most bullish bets.