Brent oil set for biggest monthly gain since 1990!

[UPDATE on Friday, March 27th: Brent oil has climbed nearly 52% so far in March 2026 - set for its biggest ever advance for the month of March in its history!]

Markets are paring their expectations for a sooner-than-later de-escalation in the Middle East conflict, amid conflicting signals from the US and Iran:

• Brent Oil (Bybit: UKOUSD): +2.0%, back above $103/bbl; Strait of Hormuz remains markets' focal point

• Gold (Bybit: XAUUSD+): -1.2%, trading around $4,450 as elevated oil prices erase prospects of Fed rate cuts

• SP500: -0.36% dipping back below 6,600 psychological level amid risk-off moves

• EURUSD+: little changed, adhering to 1.148 - 1.164 sideways range over past week

• Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): -1.3%, testing support at $70,000 psychological level

Ask TradeGPT: Why are SMAs and big round price levels important markers for traders?

Strait of Hormuz chokehold confirms Brent's "golden cross"

Technical traders would have noted that Brent Oil formed a "golden cross" once markets reopened on March 2nd - after the first US-Israeli attacks on Iran and the latter followed suit with retaliations across the region during the weekend prior.

NOTE: A "golden cross" occurs when an asset's 50-day simple moving average crosses above its 200-day counterpart.

A "golden cross" is often seen as a "bullish signal" = a sign that more price gains are ahead.

RECAP: Here's how much Brent oil prices have risen after every "golden cross" over the past decade (2016-2026):

• 12 May 2016: Brent climbed as much as 23.3% through the intraday peak on 3 January 2017.
• 25 September 2017: Brent climbed as much as 52.5% through the intraday peak on 3 October 2018.
• 6 May 2019: Brent climbed as much as 4% through the intraday peak on 20 May 2019.
• 10 January 2020: Golden cross immediately invalidated by Covid-19 pandemic.
• 28 September 2020: Brent climbed as much as 232.3% through the intraday peak on 7 March 2022 - following Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
• 25 August 2023: Brent climbed as much as 17.3% through the intraday peak on 28 September 2023.
• 3 April 2024: Brent climbed as much as 3.3% through the intraday peak on 12 April 2024 - Brent's weakest "golden cross" gains over the past decade
• 2 March 2026: Brent climbed as much as 46.5% through the intraday peak on 9 March 2026 - with the Strait of Hormuz still practically shut at the time of writing.

Sure enough, with the Middle East conflict showing little signs of easing, the fundamentals of constrained global oil supplies have sent Brent oil 45% higher so far this month.

Brent Oil is currently on course for its biggest monthly gain since 1990!

Iran War: Conflicting Signals Dampen De-Escalation Hopes

• White House insists peace talks ongoing; Tehran publicly rejects US overtures and issues fresh conditions.

• Israel launched strikes across Iran Thursday hours after Trump said Tehran wants deal.

• Iran envoy to Japan: "No unilateral imposition" of peace plan acceptable.

• Mediators from Turkey, Egypt, Pakistan pushing for US-Iran meeting this week.

Middle East Conflict: What's Next?

Expect more headline-driven volatility: markets remain very sensitive to the latest developments surrounding the Iran war.

While unexpected and outsized price swings can present opportunities for traders with healthier risk appetites, utmost caution remains warranted.

Noting that President Trump has ordered thousands of US troops to the region ... 

Further escalation in the Iran war will likely lead to a longer chokehold on shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

Such a reality is bound to further lift oil benchmarks (Brent Crude - UKOUSD and WTI Crude - USOUSD) to the upside, while dragging down other major asset classes, including stocks, major FX pairs (on the stronger US dollar), and potentially even cryptos.

READ MORE:

• published March 23rd: 3 Assets to Watch (March 23-27) - including Brent oil.
• published March 12th: Brent hits $100 again! Will Middle East crisis send Brent to new record high?
• published March 9th: Oil hits $100! Why is the world freaking out?
• published March 3rd: Middle East Watch - How high could Brent Oil go? ("... could herald Brent Oil returning to triple-digits for the first time since 2022.")
• published March 1st: Middle East Watch - 3 Assets in Focus