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Axios reported that the US and Iran, along with regional mediators, are discussing a potential 45-day ceasefire.
This latest news has prompted markets to start off the week on a hopeful note.
Bitcoin (BTCUSDT): +2.3%, around $69k attempting to breach resistance at its 50-day simple moving average (SMA) as well as the $70,000 psychological level
Gold (XAUUSD+): +0.2%, just shy of $4700 but resting on its 100-day SMA for crucial support
SP500 (tracks benchmark S&P 500): +0.1%, reclaiming the 6,600 handle once more
Brent Crude Oil (UKOUSD): -0.4%, though still above $110 after OPEC+ yesterday (Sunday, April 5) approving a symbolic output hike of 206k barrels per day starting May 2026.
However, markets remain wary of the April 6th (today) deadline brandished by US President Donald Trump, even as he continued threatening to attack Iran's power plants and bridges starting tomorrow (Tuesday, April 7).
Overall, markets will certainly remain sensitive to the latest headlines emanating from the Iran War, while keeping a watchful eye on the incoming US inflation data.
NOTE: Major European markets are closed today (Monday, April 6) for Easter Monday.
With all that in mind, here are 3 assets to watch this week:
Since the Middle East conflict erupted end-February, the SP500 has been stuck in a downtrend: posting a series of lower highs and lower lows.
At the time of writing, the SP500 is attempting to break out of this downtrend, testing resistance from the upper downward-sloping trendline that has repelled gains over the past 6 weeks.
KEY EVENTS:
Monday, April 6th @ 5:00 PM UTC: President Trump's news conference
Wednesday, April 8th @ 6:00 PM UTC: FOMC meeting minutes
Thursday, April 9th @ 12:30 PM UTC: US February PCE (personal consumption expenditure - Fed's preferred way of measuring inflation)
Friday, April 10th @ 12:30 PM UTC: US March CPI (consumer price index - measures headline inflation)
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: The SP500 may rebound and hit its 200-day SMA should Iran war developments allow risk-on sentiment to recover across global markets, while the US data releases don't show an unruly inflation spike.
DOWNSIDE: The SP500 may sink back into sub-6500 levels once more if the Iran war continues sapping risk-on sentiment, while the incoming top-tier economic data reveal US inflation spiking.
Another sudden capitulation for risk assets could see the SP500 fall back into a "technical correction", should it reach the 6300 level.
NOTE: An asset has fallen into a "technical correction" when it drops 10% or more from a recent high.
Since the Iran War erupted on February 28th, the New Zealand dollar has been G10's biggest loser against the US dollar (NZDUSD+ fallen 4.8% since market close on February 27th).
NZDUSD+ has also been stuck in a downtrend (lower highs and lower lows) for the past 2 months.
KEY EVENTS:
In addition to the latest Iran war developments, as well as the key events already listed above for the SP500 ...
Wednesday, April 8th @ 2:00 AM UTC: RBNZ rate decision
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to leave its Official Cash Rate unchanged at 2.25% this week.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: NZDUSD+ may rebound and hit 0.5800 should (1) Iran war developments allow risk-on sentiment to recover across global markets, (2) the RBNZ hawkishly signals a willingness to hike rates perhaps as soon as May, (3) while US inflation comes in lower than expected.
DOWNSIDE: NZDUSD+ may falter to its lowest levels since Nov 2025 and hit 0.5620 should (1) Iran war headlines further dent risk sentiment, (2) the RBNZ signals a reluctance to hike its cash rate, perhaps concerned about downside risks to the economy (3) while US inflation exceeds market forecasts.
Among the 10 biggest tokens (excuding stablecoins) by market cap ...
Cardano has been the biggest gainer so far in April 2026 (+5.6%).
Though looking at the chart, ADA has been mostly confined to a sideways trend for the past 2 months.
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS:
UPSIDE: ADAUSDT may strive for the 0.30 big, round number on a massive gust of risk-on sentiment, provided it can break stubborn resistance around its 50-day simple moving average (SMA).
DOWNSIDE: ADAUSDT may dip back into sub-0.2400 prices if markets are prompted to sell into recent risk-on rallies.