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The final Fed meeting of 2025 has come and gone, and major assets are posting declines at the time of writing:
The 21-day SMA has been an important support level, highlighted by Chief Market Analyst Han Tan in our special Dec 9 livestream previewing this Fed rate decision.
Trade SP500, XAUUSD+, and more on Bybit MT5 here.
Such mixed signals likely added to the topsy-turvy post-Fed moves across asset classes.
Although the US dollar has weakened against most of its G10 peers as expected*, yet Gold has been unable to take advantage of the weaker 'buck', while cryptos and stocks were dented by deteriorating risk appetite following Oracle's disappointing earnings results.
*a currency tends to weaken at the thought of its country's interest rates going down
There's been plenty of volatility in the hours following the Fed rate decision, producing long and short opportunities galore for short-term traders.
Let's see how the actual moves stack up against the market's forecasts, which we previously shared during our Dec 9 livestream and published in yesterday's (Wed, Dec 10) article:
Bitcoin (forecasts: 2% up or down)
- as much as 2.2% up
- as much as 1.56% down
- peak to trough decline: 5.37% at the time of writing
Ethereum (forecasts: 2.5% up / 3% down)
- as much as 2% up
- as much as 3.6% down
- peak to trough decline: 8.1% at the time of writing
Ripple (forecasts: 2.6% up / 4.2% down)
- as much as 2% up
- as much as 2.3% down
- peak to trough decline: 4.2% matching forecasts for the 6-hour window
Solana (forecasts: 3.3% up / 3% down)
- as much as 3.5% up
- as much as 3.1% down
- peak to trough decline: 9.5% at the time of writing
Gold (forecasts: 0.28% up / 1.5% down)
- as much as 1.1% up
- peak to trough ascent: 1.6%, though XAUUSD+ has since pared much of its gains following the Fed rate decision
S&P 500 (forecasts: 1.3% up or down)
- as much as 0.9% up
- as much as 1.3% down from peak to trough, at the time of writing, matching forecasts
EURUSD (forecast: 0.2% up / 0.8% down)
- as much as 0.44% up, though EURUSD has pared some of its gains since
NOTES:
Forecasted and actual % moves above were for the 6 hours after yesterday's Fed rate decision.
Forecasts were based off 1 standard deviation of each asset's reactions to Fed rate decisions over the past 12 months
The Fed watch is still on, with markets shifting attentions to key US economic data releases due in the days ahead:
After all, these types of data directly feeds into the Fed's dual mandate: "maximum employment" and "stable prices'.
In other words, after all the volatility overnight, there are bound to be more Fed-related market moves in the near future.