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7 months ago, markets tumbled as US President Donald Trump delivered his tariff shocker.
This week, markets are invoking comparisons to price action from April 2025:
Even Gold is slipping at the time of writing, testing its 21-day simple moving average (SMA) for immediate support once more, as has been the case for most of this week.
Trade SP500, Gold, and more on Bybit MT5 - here.
These declines across asset classes are puzzling, despite this week's twin boost of good news:
1) Nov 20: Nvidia delivered a robust sales outlook that helped lift its stock and US indices (SP500 and NAS100), briefly.
Watch our Nov. 19 Nvidia earnings preview here. NVIDIA's share price did hit our forecasted price target, before tumbling
2) Nov 20: The delayed US September jobs data a.k.a nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report showed a still resilient labor market in the world's largest economy.
Watch our Nov. 20 US jobs report preview here, though risk assets failed to hang on to immediate gains, with the S&P 500 posting its biggest intraday reversal since April at 3.6%
Tech stocks have been pummelled as investors book profits after a stellar run in AI names for most of this year, wary that future profits may not emulate the explosive growth in recent past.
While the S&P 500 has fallen about 5% from its record high posted in late-October, the tech-heavy Nadaq 100 has dropped almost 8% in that same period.
Prior to the Fed lowering its bechmark rates in October, forward looking markets had expeted 94% chance that the US central bank will cut rates again by 25-basis points in December.
Those odds for a Dec rate cut are now down to a meagre 30%.
NOTE: Risk assets like cryptos and stocks tend to delight in the notion of US interest rates going DOWN.
Since its record high on Oct 6th (using closing prices), and prior to the 10/10 drama - crypto's biggest liquidation event - the CoinDesk20 Index has tumbled nearly 40%.
From retail traders to the ETF crowd, and even whales, market participants have sold at a rapid clip, with buyers scarce and not yet ready to come back in.
Looking through year-end, perhaps only the Fed holds enough influence to shore up risk sentiment, though it appears unlikely now.
The Fed has to deliver a surprise rate cut, not just in its final scheduled policy meeting of 2025, but also signal a willingness to ease policy rapidly in 2026 and buffer liquidity levels as well.
Such an outlook would require further deterioration in the US jobs market, while policymakers remained assured that inflation doesn't risk making a comeback.
At this point in time, it's tough to imagine such a dovish outcome from the December 9-10 FOMC meeting, though two and a half weeks can be a long time in financial markets.
Even amidst the current angst, there are pockets of opportunities within the crypto landscape.
The token for Dymension - a network of modular blockchains known as RollApps - soared from about 0.08 just two days ago to spike as high as 0.218 today.
This surge comes amidst voting on its "Beyond" upgrade which aims to:
along with a host of new features and improvements.
Voting on the "Beyond' upgrade is set to end tomorrow (Saturday, Nov 22).