Macro this week: Key releases amid recession fear

Fears of a US recession and a global trade war have triggered significant downturns in the crypto and stock markets over the past month. As the Trump administration's policies fuel a "period of transition," financial markets are entering a "detox period" characterized by increased volatility and uncertainty. Meanwhile, this is a critical week for investors, with multiple US economic reports being released by Mar 14, 2025.

In this article, Bybit will introduce you to the key macro trends shaping financial markets and crypto prices. You’ll also learn which of this week’s economic reports are the most important to be aware of.

Key Takeaways:

• Crypto prices have taken a significant hit over the past 30 days, with the combined market cap falling by over 15%.

• Amid US recession and global trade war fears, the stock market has also experienced a sell-off, as the Nasdaq-100 had its worst day in three years on Mar 10, 2025.

• Some of the key macro reports to watch out for this week include the upcoming Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Core Producer Price Index (PPI) releases, which could provide insights into inflation trends for investors.

Key macro events to watch this week

Amid falling stock and crypto prices and market uncertainty, this week is important for investors, with multiple key economic reports being released between March 10 and 14. 

These are the most crucial macro events to watch this week:

Source: MarketWatch

A new job openings report was released on Mar 11, 2025, showing that 232,000 new positions were added in January, bringing total openings to 7.74 million. This signals a resilient labor market, which could have implications for inflation and interest rate expectations.

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) for February came in at 2.8%, slightly below the expected 2.9%, signaling a slight cool down in consumer inflation. The Producer Price Index (PPI) followed with a flat 0.0% reading against an anticipated 0.3% increase, marking the first core PPI decline since July and suggesting easing price pressures at the wholesale level. These softer-than-expected figures have fueled optimism in markets, hinting at a potential pivot by the Federal Reserve toward a more dovish stance, possibly keeping interest rates steady or even cutting them later in 2025 if growth slows. However, Trump's proposed tariffs continue to caused uncertainty, keeping equity markets volatile.

Crypto market sell-off

Despite a strong start this year, the crypto market has taken a significant hit since early February. As of Mar 12, 2025, the combined cryptocurrency market cap has dropped 6.6% over the past seven days and 15.24% in the past 30 days. 

Here's how the prices of some major coins have changed:

• Bitcoin: −6.09% (7-day) and −15.69% (30-day)

• Ethereum: −13.56% (7-day) and −27.64% (30-day)

• Solana: −13.75% (7-day) and −39.53% (30-day)

This market sell-off has triggered a large number of liquidations, totaling $404.63 million over the past 24 hours. Additionally, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fluctuated between "Fear" and "Extreme Fear" since Feb 25, 2025. This suggests that investors feel pressure to sell their cryptocurrency, driving digital asset prices down.

US stock market downturn

Cryptocurrency isn’t the only asset class that has recently experienced a significant downturn. In fact, the crypto sell-off is primarily being driven by global market turmoil that has also triggered a stock market downturn within the past few weeks.

The S&P 500 (GSPC), Nasdaq-100 (NDX) and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) — three of the major stock market indices — are down by 8.18%, 10.94% and 7.09%, respectively, over the past 30 days. What's more, the NDX had its worst day since 2022 on Mar 10, 2025, taking a 4% hit within 24 hours, and the “Magnificent Seven” stocks falling sharply over the past month:

1. Apple Inc. (AAPL): −5.06%

2. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): −7.53%

3. Alphabet Inc. (GOOG): −11.27%

4. Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN): −15.54%

5. Meta Platforms Inc. (META): −15.85%

6. Tesla Inc. (TSLA): −29.81%

7. NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA): −18.10%

Trump's tariffs, and recession fears

But why did crypto and US stocks fall so heavily over the past month? The answer lies in new warnings that the US economy could be heading for a recession. Moreover, investors fear that President Donald Trump's tariffs could lead to a global trade war.

Since his inauguration on Jan 20, 2025, Trump has introduced a global 25% levy on US steel and aluminum imports. Moreover, he’s introduced nation-specific measures against Canada, Mexico and mainland China, triggering retaliatory actions.

Also, the Trump administration is drastically cutting US government spending by freezing federal grants, downsizing the federal workforce, implementing agency purges and other measures. These policies, combined with the impacts of a brewing trade war, are fueling market volatility and uncertainty in the short term.

Trump called this a period of transition, warning of short-term pain for financial markets. According to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, these moves aim to rebalance the economy and could lead to a "detox period."

#LearnWithBybit