Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Oct 1, 2025): US government shutdown has limited impact on crypto but options market remains cautious; privacy tokens gain traction

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

A major liquidation event beginning September 22 led to a sharp drop in open interest for Bybit perpetual swaps, pulling notional contract values down from their pre-FOMC highs. This coincided with a steep decline in spot prices, as BTC broke below $108K and ETH fell to under $4,000. Both assets have since rebounded — BTC is now trading above $118K and ETH is at $4,400 — despite the backdrop of a US government shutdown, which has had limited market impact. 

Zcash (ZEC) surged from $40 to over $95, driven by its Zashi CrossPay launch, THORSwap integration and rising global surveillance concerns. It outperformed other privacy tokens, such as Monero (XMR) and Beldex (BDX).

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Volatility returns to lows; the options market remains cautious, possibly due to political uncertainties

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Following a brief term structure inversion during the September 17 FOMC meeting, BTC’s implied volatility has reverted to historic lows, driven by a collapse in realized volatility as 7-day RV fell below 20% on September 21, a level not seen since mid-2023. Despite intramonth volatility, BTC posted a modest gain in September, closing at $114,000 from an opening price of $107,000. However, options markets remain cautious, with persistent put-skewed volatility smiles, especially across longer tenors.

ETH put-call skews favor puts, implying cautious behavior

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes 

Ether options remain put-heavy, with volumes topping $400M during ETH’s early September drop below $4,000. Ethereum Spot ETFs offered little support, seeing $795M in outflows over five days. As with BTC options, ETH options are pricing in declining volatility, with ATM levels falling 10 points through the month. Short-term put-call skews stayed bearishly tilted toward out-of-the-money puts.

Privacy tokens gain traction

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Zcash (ZEC), a privacy-focused token leveraging zero-knowledge proofs and shielded addresses, has historically rallied during altcoin cycles, notably in 2017–18 and 2021. Over the past week, ZEC nearly doubled from $40 to over $95, driven by the launch of Zashi CrossPay for shielded cross-chain swaps, integration with THORSwap and growing political momentum around digital surveillance. While other privacy tokens like XMR and BDX have also gained, ZEC has outperformed.

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