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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
After initially resisting US president Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs, crypto markets joined the global sell-off, with BTC falling from $87K on April 2 to a low of $74K. BTC’s term structure was inverted again before easing, while ETH’s term structure remained inverted. Meanwhile, short-term BTC volatility skews favored OTM puts, reflecting more bearish sentiment than during the Q1 2023 US banking crisis. However, volatility levels decreased after Trump announced a 90-day pause on tariffs (excluding those on China), leading to a significant rally in spot prices.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
Bybit’s largest perpetual swap markets initially remained stable during the broader market sell-off and tariff reactions, recovering from the dip after the late February hack. However, Trump’s recent announcement and subsequent pause of near-unilateral import tariffs significantly impacted these markets, leading to notable declines in open interest for BTC and ETH, which have fallen sharply from their late March highs.
After a brief period of positive funding rates, BTC’s perpetual swap market fluctuated between positive and negative sentiment, indicating traders were hesitant to commit to a strong directional move (similar to trends in options markets). This changed when President Trump announced a 90-day tariff relief, leading to positive jumps in funding rates. Altcoins displayed a similar pattern, with funding rates alternately positive and negative before rising following the tariff announcement.
During the April 6–7, 2025 sell-off, traders sought downside protection, as BTC's spot price fell to $75K in reaction to President Trump’s tariff announcement. The high volume of put options relative to calls indicates strong demand for this protection. Meanwhile, the US's reciprocal tariffs caused a significant inversion in BTC’s at-the-money volatility term structure, which, although it has eased, remains inverted. Additionally, there‘s a stronger skew toward OTM puts at short tenors as compared to the March 2023 US banking crisis. Put open interest has surged over the past week, reflecting extremely bearish sentiment for both the near and long terms.
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