Bybit x Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Dec 11, 2025): Final FOMC meeting of the year does little to abate bearish crypto sentiment

The week’s main event, the FOMC’s final meeting of the year, saw policymakers deliver a 25bps rate cut – an outcome largely expected by markets. Chair Powell delivered a moderately hawkish press conference, leaving the door both open to a rate cut or a pause in the January 2026 meeting. The outcome for crypto markets? Certainly no “firework” reactions. Open interest in perpetual swap contracts has mostly been sideways for the entire week, implied volatility in options markets had steadily fallen lower even ahead of the meeting and perpetual swap funding rates for BTC showed a lack of participation for leveraged position taking. Even after the Fed delivered its third cut of the year and provided a more optimistic outlook on the US economy via the Summary of Economic Projections, volatility smiles in options markets continue to point bearishly – skewed towards OTM puts.

• Perpetuals: Open interest is still far lower than the levels it plummeted from pre-October 10, and funding rates in leveraged contracts suggest retail traders are still unwilling to re-enter positions in perpetual swap contracts. 
• Options: Volatility smiles are bearish across the whole term structure for both BTC and ETH with volatility smiles pricing in  close to a 5% premium for OTM puts over calls for both short-dated and long-dated BTC and ETH options. As such, those waiting for a so-called ‘Santa rally’ may end up disappointed, at least based on current positioning in derivatives markets.

Block Scholes’ Risk Appetite Index measures the level of euphoria (above 1) or panic (below -1) in the spot market. Momentum in this index shows a strong relationship to spot returns.