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This week the market wrestled with one central question: Is $59,130 the cycle bottom? By Friday, three of five confirmation conditions had been met simultaneously — a combination we have not seen at any point in the past three months.
Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, updated June 15 latest):
All three assets closed green. The week progressed in three distinct acts: CPI relief → SpaceX IPO bounce → US-Iran deal catalyst. BTC recovered from the week's low of $61,000 to $65,011, breaking through the key resistance formed by the H&S measured target zone ($65,000–$66,000). XAUT reversed its earlier decline — gold surged +1.94% on the deal confirmation, flipping the week from red to green.
Event Timeline:
Bottom confirmation scorecard — 3 of 5 conditions now met:
Three conditions met simultaneously is the strongest bottom support combination of this entire cycle. At no point over the past three months have we seen these three conditions align at the same time.
Institutional Views:
Our view: Three conditions confirmed simultaneously is a meaningful signal. We are upgrading our stance from "wait" to "ready — pending next week's open confirmation." If ETF net inflows sustain and CPI data improves over the coming weeks, a full bottom confirmation becomes the base case.
Trump, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, and Pakistan's Prime Minister all posted simultaneously confirming the deal's completion:
WTI Crude: -5% intraday to $80.58/barrel — the single most important external inflation variable moves sharply lower
Gold: +1.94% to $4,297/oz; Silver +2.55% to $69.7/oz
Crypto: BTC +1.03% to $65,011; ETH +2.09% to $1,718; SOL +1.7%; ZEC +8.49%; HYPE +4.88%
We have consistently argued that "peace ≠ lower rates" — and that remains true. The structural drivers of elevated real rates (debt expansion, AI neutral rate, capex inflation) are not geopolitical stories. But the deal does remove the energy price component — the one factor in the inflation complex that was war-driven. That is a genuine macro improvement, for now.
Strategy's new SEC filing revealed it sold 1,409,600 Class A shares between June 1–7, generating $181M in net proceeds, immediately deployed to purchase 1,550 Bitcoin at an average price of $65,332.
Although this directly counters the panic triggered just days earlier when filings revealed the company had sold 32 BTC between May 26–31, BTC spot prices remain about 10% lower on a month-to-date basis (prior to June 1st disclosure)
Saylor stated it is "a good time to add more dots" to the company's Bitcoin acquisition chart — a phrase that has served as a highly reliable leading indicator for multi-million-dollar purchase announcements in recent months.
The implication:
The 32 BTC sale is confirmed as a tactical financing operation, not a strategic shift
Strategy's average cost basis is ~$66,384; at current $65,011, the position carries a modest unrealized loss — but the resumption of buying signals unchanged long-term conviction
The "Strategy = long-term BTC conviction anchor" institutional narrative is on its way to being restored
June 10 CPI showed core inflation below expectations, providing a brief relief bounce. However, only BTC held its gains — ETH and altcoins reversed, suggesting institutional buying remains highly selective and concentrated in BTC's "digital gold" narrative.
Oil's 5% decline from the US-Iran interim deal, combined with a softer CPI print, represents the most favorable dual inflation signal in two months. But one soft data point does not constitute a trend reversal.
With SpaceX listed, analysts describe the pre-IPO liquidity pressure as a "temporary tax — now fully collected."
But Sygnum Bank warns that OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO in H2 2026, reshaping where capital sits. SpaceX was the first — not the last — in what may be a series of mega-IPO capital draws.
Analysts warn that a Bank of Japan rate hike could trigger a yen carry trade unwind, pressuring Bitcoin liquidity and global risk assets broadly.
The US-Iran deal does not remove BOJ risk. With approximately $4 trillion in yen carry trades outstanding, the transmission path is clear:
JPY appreciates → carry positions forced to unwind → global risk assets sold simultaneously → BTC, ETH, equities all decline in tandem |
This remains the most underpriced systemic variable for H2 2026, and indeed a major risk that Bybit Learn has highlighted since the start of the year
BlackRock and Goldman Sachs are both entering the "Bitcoin yield ETF" space via Covered Call strategies:
Three costs investors must understand:
① Upside is capped — the biggest drawback When BTC rallies sharply, the fund must sell at the strike price — all gains above the strike are forfeited. Today's US-Iran deal pushed BTC above $65,000. If this triggers a genuine bull run, Covered Call ETFs will systematically underperform simply holding IBIT.
② Downside protection is limited The premium is a cushion, not a hedge. At last week's $59,130 low, the Covered Call product lost nearly as much as outright spot exposure.
③ Tax complexity Options premium income is typically treated as short-term capital gains — taxed at a higher rate than long-term holdings, and not a guaranteed fixed income.
Who it's for vs. who it's not for:
The connection to our DVOL framework:
Bitcoin yield ETFs are structurally "short volatility." At DVOL 35%, the premium income is at its lowest — the worst time to sell vol. At DVOL 50%+, the logic is strongest. Current DVOL at 40% means these products are generating below-average yield. If the US-Iran deal triggers a real BTC rally, holders will systematically underperform outright long exposure. |
Three Scenarios:
This week’s FOMC meeting marks the new Fed Chair’s first public appearance. The market’s attention has already moved beyond the rate decision itself — the direction of any hike or cut has long been priced in. The real variable is the new Chair’s communication style, policy framework, and stance on institutional independence.
Key Observations:
Hawkish vs. Dovish Tilt: Will the new Chair maintain the predecessor’s “higher for longer” framework, or signal a clearer path toward rate cuts?
Independence Signaling: With the White House continuing to pressure the Fed, will the new Chair explicitly defend the institution’s monetary policy independence? The answer will directly affect the credibility of the dollar and US Treasuries.
Dot Plot & Forward Guidance: The updated SEP (Summary of Economic Projections) will for the first time reflect the new Chair’s policy judgment. Whether the projected number of 2026 rate cuts is revised downward is the key question.
Transmission Paths to Crypto:
Dovish (rate cut signals): USD weakens + real rates decline → BTC upward momentum continues; paired with current bottom-confirmation signals, could trigger an accelerated breakout above $68,000–$70,000.
Hawkish (higher for longer): Short-term pressure on risk assets; rising Treasury yields → BTC may retest the $63,000 support level, though the structural bottom remains intact.
Policy Chaos or Compromised Independence: Tail risk — if markets perceive political erosion of Fed independence, a dollar credibility crisis could arrive ahead of schedule, with both gold and BTC benefiting simultaneously.
Our View: The FOMC is the single most important event risk this week. The US-Iran deal is already priced in; the new Chair’s tone and policy stance is the only genuine unknown. We recommend maintaining reduced net exposure ahead of the FOMC and waiting for directional clarity before adding positions.
Current DVOL: ~40% (down from 55% crash spike)
Why we're shifting from "wait" to "ready":
Next week's decision framework:
⚠️ All strategy suggestions are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial advice. Actual strikes and premiums depend on live IV at time of entry. |
Three of five bottom conditions confirmed simultaneously — the strongest bottom support combination of this cycle: BTC above $65k (✅) + US-Iran deal officially signed (✅) + Strategy resumes buying 1,550 BTC at $65,332 average (✅). The remaining two conditions (sustained ETF inflows + Fed trajectory) are this week's most critical observations.
US-Iran deal is the week's most important macro development. WTI crude -5% removes the single most important external inflation variable. The structural drivers — debt expansion, AI capex, neutral rate — remain. "Peace ≠ lower rates" still holds. But the energy component — the one genuinely war-driven inflation input — has been materially relieved.
SpaceX IPO overhang clears. Standard Chartered declares "crypto winter is over," $59k is the cycle bottom. But Sygnum Bank warns OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO in H2 2026 — the next capital rotation is already on the calendar.
BOJ remains the most underpriced systemic risk of H2 2026. The Iran deal does not eliminate this. ~$4T in yen carry trades; if BOJ hikes, no risk asset is immune.
Covered Call Bitcoin ETFs structurally sell volatility. At DVOL 40%, premium yield is below average. If BTC enters a genuine bull run after today's Iran deal, Covered Call holders will systematically underperform outright long. Size these as supplements, not core positions.
Stance upgraded from "wait" to "ready." Waiting for next week's open: BTC holds $65,000 + ETF records net inflows. Both confirmed → initiate positions (Iron Condor or Sell Put pending DVOL recovering to 43%+). Either fails → maintain wait.