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One month of calls fully validated: High-point risk warning → $78,500 resistance confirmed → H&S neckline → Put options built → $65k–$67k profit target — market bottomed at $59,130, both the thesis and the profit delivered
BTC posted its worst single-week decline since the FTX collapse (-~20%); opened at $73,760, hit a low of $59,130, currently recovering to ~$63,000
Three forces hit simultaneously: blowout NFP reignites rate hike pricing, SpaceX IPO sucks liquidity, Strategy breaks its "never sell" vow for the first time
ETH daily RSI hit 12.78 — the most extreme oversold reading in history; ZEC security bug triggered indiscriminate selling across unaffected assets
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their most significant weekly net outflow to date, totaling $1.7 billion.
DVOL surged from historic low of 35 to 55, now pulling back to 48 — the vol compression that set up our Put trade has fully unwound
Strategy: Put options closed in profit; oversold conditions favor a technical bounce, but structural headwinds remain — no chasing longs yet
This is the most important thing to address first.
Over the past four weeks, we made a sequence of directional calls. Every one of them was validated this week:
On the Put options specifically:
Takeaway: Buying Put protection at historic DVOL lows, timed with a confirmed H&S breakdown and structural macro headwinds, produced a textbook result. The same logic applies next time similar conditions align — low vol + technical breakdown + macro pressure = buy the Put, not the dip.
The most important options market development of the week.
The DVOL chart tells the complete story of this trade in one image:
Green box (35–40 zone): DVOL compressed to its lowest level since before the Iran war — the exact window we used to enter Put options cheaply. The market was pricing in near-zero movement. We disagreed.
Orange arrow: DVOL exploded from the 35 floor to a weekly high of approximately 55 as BTC crashed from $73,760 to $59,130. This vol spike is what amplified the Put option's return — not only did the underlying move in our direction, but implied vol expanded simultaneously, creating a double tailwind for put option buyers.
Current level (~48): DVOL is now pulling back from the spike high. The panic vol expansion is fading as the initial shock is absorbed.
What does DVOL at 48 mean for strategy going forward?
Key observation: DVOL at 48 is now in the range where Iron Condor and other seller strategies begin to generate meaningful premium — unlike the 35 floor where selling was not worthwhile. However, with price still in a downtrend and macro unresolved, the directional risk to sellers remains elevated. We need either price stabilization or further DVOL compression before recommending seller strategies.
Price Action (Bybit Platform Data, updated June 8):
This was BTC's worst single-week percentage decline since the FTX collapse in November 2022. BTC opened the week at approximately $73,760, briefly pushed as high as $74,092, then fell to a low of $59,130 — the first time below $60,000 since October 2024. A wave of dip-buying and short-covering quickly brought the price back to $61,200, with further recovery to ~$63,000.
Event Timeline:
The nonfarm payrolls report came in well above expectations, triggering not just "Higher for Longer" fears but actively reigniting rate hike pricing for later in 2026. June 10's CPI release is now the next critical volatility event.
The Fed's dilemma deepened this week: labor market strength of this magnitude rules out any near-term dovish pivot. Every positive employment print is a negative for risk assets priced on rate cut expectations.
SpaceX is scheduled to list on June 12. Morgan Stanley is telling investors the company's revenue could hit $3.4 trillion by 2040; Goldman Sachs projects its AI division revenue could surge to $322 billion by 2030 from just $3.2 billion last year. At a nearly $1.8 trillion IPO valuation, this is the largest liquidity draw from the market in years. Simultaneously, tech giants like Meta have shifted from share buybacks to new equity issuance — further diluting the valuation logic and amplifying the rotation away from crypto.
Strategy sold just 32 BTC for approximately $2.5 million — just 0.0038% of its 843,700 BTC holdings. The market's real concern was not these 32 coins, but the systemic signal behind the sale: Strategy's average cost basis is ~$75,700 per coin; at $63,000, the company carries approximately $10.8 billion in unrealized losses. To meet preferred share dividend obligations — with an annualized dividend rate of approximately 11.5% — the company was forced to sell for the first time since 2022. This shattered 4 years of the "never sell" belief that gave hodlers their sense of structural security.
🔴 Breaking (June 8): Strategy Resumes Buying — 1,550 BTC at Avg. $65,332 Strategy has announced it purchased 1,550 BTC between June 1–7 at an average price of $65,332, for a total of $101.3M. This directly follows the market-rattling sale of 32 BTC disclosed last week. The resumption of buying signals that the sale was a one-time liquidity event to cover preferred share dividends — not a strategic shift in conviction. This is a significant positive signal for holder sentiment, though the purchase price of $65,332 remains well below Strategy's average cost basis of ~$75,700.
Ethereum's daily RSI fell to 12.78 — the most extreme oversold reading ever recorded for ETH. RSI below 30 is typically considered oversold; 12.78 indicates panic selling with no regard for price. Historically, readings this extreme have consistently marked at least a short-term low.
BTC daily RSI hit 15.45 — double confirmation of the oversold signal.
While ETH's 12.78 grabbed the headline, BTC's daily RSI fell to 15.45 at the same time. Two largest crypto assets in the market registering historically extreme oversold readings simultaneously is not a coincidence — it is a market-wide capitulation event. BTC dropping 16% in a single week while RSI compresses to this level signals mechanical seller exhaustion; historically, readings this extreme have consistently preceded meaningful technical bounces.
The critical distinction:
Extreme RSI oversold → probability of short-term technical bounce rises ✅
Extreme RSI oversold → confirmation of trend reversal ❌ (requires additional conditions)
Bottom line: BTC 15.45 + ETH 12.78 occurring together is the strongest oversold signal this cycle has produced. It does not confirm the bottom is in — but it does mean the risk/reward of new short positions at current levels is poor, and a 10–15% technical relief rally from the lows is well within historical precedent.
Zcash (ZEC) disclosed a security vulnerability, and the market immediately displayed "indiscriminate selling" behavior — assets like XMR that were entirely unaffected by the bug also sold off sharply alongside ZEC.
This behavior pattern indicates: market sentiment has reached a breaking point. Investors are no longer screening news rationally — they sell first and assess later. This is a characteristic of extreme capitulation, but also of an extremely fragile market structure where small negative catalysts can trigger disproportionately large price declines.
U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced their most significant weekly net outflow to date, totaling $1.7 billion. This trend signals a cooling of institutional demand, driven primarily by macroeconomic factors rather than crypto-specific news. The outflows, which included a notable $1.34 billion from BlackRock's IBIT, were largely attributed to a strong U.S. jobs report.
According to Citi analysts, ETF flows account for approximately 45% of BTC's weekly return variation — meaning ETF outflows are not just a sentiment indicator, they are a mechanical source of downward price pressure. ETFs previously absorbed large amounts of BTC supply during the recovery phase; now that flow has reversed, ETFs have become contributors to downside momentum rather than a stabilizing force.
Was $59,130 the cycle low? June 10 CPI is the next critical test.
Three Scenarios:
① Put Options — Final Summary
② Why we are not chasing longs despite extreme oversold conditions:
ETF outflows are not yet stabilized
Macro unresolved: CPI on June 10; if it surprises hot again, rate hike expectations accelerate further
Strategy variable undigested: Market needs time to assess whether Strategy will sell again, and the long-term impact on holder confidence
SpaceX IPO (set for June 12) liquidity competition still ongoing
DVOL at 48 is normalizing but not yet at seller-friendly levels: Need DVOL to either continue declining toward 40 (seller opportunities emerge) or stabilize for 3+ sessions before committing
Price structure not yet clear: BTC is bouncing from extreme oversold but has not reclaimed any meaningful resistance level. A relief rally is expected — confirming it as a tradeable low requires a sustained hold above $65,000, not just a bounce off the floor.
③ Re-engagement triggers:
One month of calls validated in full: From $82,500 high-risk warning → $78,500 resistance → H&S neckline at $73,500 → Put options at $69k–$70k → profit target $65k–$67k — the market hit $59,130, well beyond target. Thesis and profit both delivered.
BTC's worst week since FTX. $73,760 open → $59,130 low → $63,000 recovery. The H&S measured target was not just reached — it was exceeded by approximately $6,000–$8,000.
DVOL surged from its historic 35 floor to 55, now pulling back to 48. The vol compression that made our Put entry so cheap has fully unwound. The double tailwind (price moved our way + implied vol expanded simultaneously) is what made this trade exceptional. At 48, DVOL is normalizing — neither as cheap for buyers nor as expensive for sellers as the extremes we just experienced.
Three forces hit simultaneously: Blowout NFP reignites rate hike pricing; SpaceX IPO and Meta issuance drain liquidity; Strategy breaks its "never sell" stance for the first time since 2022 — 32 BTC sold, $10.8B in unrealized losses exposed.
ETF record outflow has yet to be over: ETF flows drive ~45% of BTC's weekly return variation — outflows are not just sentiment, they are mechanical downward pressure.
ETH RSI at 12.78 — most extreme oversold reading in history. Indiscriminate panic selling has set in. A technical bounce is probable; a trend reversal requires more evidence.
No new positions. Close the Put in profit. Watch CPI on June 10 and SpaceX IPO on June 12. DVOL normalizing toward 40 is the re-entry signal for sellers; $65,000 reclaimed on volume is the re-entry signal for directional bulls. Until then: protect the profit, assess the next setup.