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Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events; the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume; and futures, options and perpetual contracts.
After largely trading within narrow ranges for most of the week — despite record highs in US equities — crypto markets broke out on July 2 following news of a US-Vietnam trade deal. Bitcoin jumped past the $110K mark from the $105K–$108K range, and Ether cleared $2,500, sparking a surge in short-tenor implied volatility. BTC’s 1-week implied volatility (IV) rose from a low of 26% to 35%, although volatility smiles held steady.
On the perpetuals front, SOL funding rates turned negative, surprisingly, even with the approval of the first US-listed ETFs to directly hold SOL and enable staking. Meanwhile, in the options market, short-dated ETH contracts consistently showed nearly double the implied volatility of equivalent BTC options, during both the rally and subsequent pullbacks.
Please check out the report’s highlights.
BTC options markets are accustomed to subdued implied volatility, but last week marked a fresh low. On June 27, 7-day implied volatility fell below the long-held 35% and 30% floors, touching 26% — a level not seen since mid-2023 when BTC traded near $30K. A sharp rally on July 2, aligned with broader risk-on sentiment after a US-Vietnam trade deal, pushed the 7-day IV back to 35%.
From Jul 1–2, 2025, ETH’s spot price saw a steady climb from $2,400 to $2,500, and then surged over 6% the next day on trade deal news, outperforming BTC. The second leg of the rally drove 7-day at-the-money implied volatility up to 60% — a 10-point jump from the prior day, though still well below the 80% peak seen during last year's geopolitical tensions. Throughout the week, ETH options maintained nearly double the implied volatility of similarly dated BTC options.
Volatility smiles for BTC and ETH remained mostly neutral through the week, due to muted spot price action. BTC’s 7-day 25-delta put-call skew dipped from above 3% to a 2% premium for OTM puts, and then reverted toward flat. Despite broader risk-on sentiment from trade deal optimism, BTC skew held steady. ETH saw a sharper shift, as 7-day options now reflect a 1.3% premium for OTM calls, reversing from a −1.9% put skew just the day before.