Weekly Institutional Insights — HBO Claims Peter Todd Is Bitcoin Founder Satoshi Nakamoto

Oct 14, 2024: Our weekly Institutional Insights explores the latest market developments — market performance, industry news, exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, trending topics, upcoming events and token unlocks — to help you supercharge your crypto trading.

Enjoy our weekly take on the market!

Macro Overview — U.S. CPI Rises More Than Expected

Source: Bloomberg

The September U.S. consumer price index (CPI) report, released last Thursday, revealed that both the headline and core CPI exceeded forecasts by 0.1 percentage points, with the headline index rising by 0.2% and the core index increasing by 0.3%. Food prices significantly contributed to the stronger headline figure, despite declines in gasoline and broader energy costs, while rising service costs drove the core figure. Notable increases were observed in car insurance, medical care, clothing and airfares, with record jumps in specific categories such as college textbooks, sports tickets and jewelry. 

Year-over-year, the headline index increased by 2.4% in September, slightly down from 2.5% in August, while the core figure accelerated for the first time in 18 months, rising to 3.3% from 3.2%. Additionally, weekly jobless claims indicated a significant increase to 258,000, surpassing the median forecast of 230,000, likely influenced by recent hurricanes. This surge marked the highest level in over a year, prompting market reactions: stock futures fell, Treasuries rose, and the dollar remained stable. 

Meanwhile, as of 9:16AM in New York, two-year Treasury yields were down about 5 basis points at 3.97%, and interest-rate futures reflected growing confidence in a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut next month, influenced by the weak jobless claims data, while S&P 500 contracts dropped by 0.3%.

Weekly Crypto Highlight — HBO Claims Peter Todd Is Bitcoin Founder Satoshi Nakamoto

In the new HBO documentary Money Electric: The Bitcoin Mystery, filmmaker Cullen Hobak claims that Canadian Bitcoin developer Peter Todd is the elusive Satoshi Nakamoto. However, the evidence is inconclusive, drawing criticism from the Bitcoin community.

Todd, who contributed significantly to Bitcoin post-2012, including the replace-by-fee (RBF) protocol, is questionable as a potential creator due to inconsistencies in the evidence.

Reasons Peter Todd Is Likely Not the Inventor of Bitcoin

• Pseudonym for Credibility: The documentary suggests Todd used the Satoshi Nakamoto pseudonym for credibility when Bitcoin began. However, Todd was completing a fine arts degree in 2008, and had no prior involvement in cryptography or computer science, making this claim implausible.

• 2010 Bitcoin Forum Post: A 2010 post attributed to Todd is mistakenly presented as evidence of his posting as Satoshi Nakamoto. Critics note that this post appeared shortly after a message from Nakamoto himself, undermining the theory that Todd accidentally revealed his supposed identity via an account mix-up.

• RBF Proposal as Pre-Planned: The documentary claims Todd's introduction of RBF in 2014 was part of a long-term plan linked to Satoshi Nakamoto’s earlier work. Experts argue that RBF arose from community discussions on scalability, with no evidence that it was envisioned during Bitcoin's initial development.

• Enigmatic Message on Sacrificing Bitcoins: Todd's statement about "sacrificing coins" is interpreted as an admission of destroying Satoshi's BTC holdings. Critics contend this misrepresents his intent, which was to explore blockchain integrity, not to imply that he had eliminated access to a fortune.

Many in the Bitcoin community, including experts and analysts, have expressed skepticism about the documentary's claims. Peter Todd himself responded with amusement, suggesting viewers will find the allegations humorous.

Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows 

Total Bitcoin Spot ETF Flows.Source: CoinGlass, as of Oct 11, 2024

Bitcoin remained above $60K over the past week, buoyed by stronger-than-expected CPI data that triggered significant outflows on Thursday. While "Uptober" hasn't yet materialized this year, there's still time for a potential turnaround. In the meantime, Bitcoin's prospects on Polymarket are gaining traction, which could provide a boost to the leading cryptocurrency. Additionally, HBO's documentary claiming to reveal Satoshi's identity had no effect on Bitcoin's price movement.

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