Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, as well as futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Macro headwinds are impacting the crypto market, with a sell-off that began over the weekend deepening this week. BTC, ETH and most altcoins are declining alongside equities, gold and treasury yields, though derivatives markets are showing little bearish sentiment or increased volatility expectations. Among perpetuals, there are record consistent positive rates across most markets, indicating a reset in positioning. Meanwhile, ETH retains a volatility premium over BTC, but its term structure hasn’t inverted as sharply as in earlier sell-offs this month.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Funding Rates Largely Positive Amid Sell-Off

Despite risk-off sentiment across asset classes this weekend and early this past week, USDT-denominated perpetual contracts have shown their most consistently positive funding rates within the past month. While these rates haven't reached the bullish levels of early December 2024, most have returned to a neutral level of 0.01%, signaling a reset in positioning due to recent market movements.

Tuesday's intensified risk-off sell-off led to a significant spike in BTC put trade volume as traders hedged against further declines. Unlike ETH, which leans bullish on calls, BTC's open interest is balanced between upside and downside protection. The volatility term structure is flat again, typical during sharp market moves, but this reflects a decline in longer-dated options, rather than a rise in short-term expectations.

As the sell-off in risk-on assets deepened this past week, ETH outperformed BTC. ETH derivatives markets are showing stronger sentiment, with higher call trade volumes indicating greater demand for upside positioning as compared to puts. However, ETH's volatility term structure has inverted more sharply than BTC's, as seen in previous significant market moves since last November (2024), with front-end volatility levels 15 points above those of BTC options with a similar tenor.

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Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Feb 26, 2025): Reset in Sentiment Brewing as Fund Rates Turn Positive

Explore four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

With the rise of gamified crypto events, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge stands out as one of the most exciting opportunities for users to earn rewards while engaging with both Bybit and Mantle Network. This limited-time event offers participants a shot at a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete on-chain and trading-related tasks. 

To help you maximize your rewards and ensure you get the most out of this event, in this guide we’ll break down four essential tips to help you accumulate more points, optimize your strategy and claim the best rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time campaign that rewards participants with a share of a 1,000,000 MNT prize pool when they complete both Bybit and on-chain tasks. Players earn "wishes" that can be used to enter Lucky Draws or climb the leaderboard for greater rewards.

This campaign, hosted by Bybit in collaboration with Mantle, blends gamification with 

 engagement, offering users multiple ways to win. Participants can choose to rely on chance via the Lucky Draw or strategically allocate their wishes to compete on the leaderboard. The event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to Mar 27, 2025, making it a limited-time opportunity to accumulate rewards while exploring the Mantle ecosystem.

4 Tips to Maximize Your Wishes and Rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge

To make the most out of EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge, you need to strategize your wish allocation, complete as many tasks as possible and take advantage of all available earning mechanisms. Here are four essential tips to maximize your rewards:

One of the best ways to earn high-value rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is by competing on the leaderboard. There are a total of five rounds, and the rewards are higher with each passing round. 

The more wishes you allocate toward leaderboard rankings, the higher your position and the larger your rewards. However, since the leaderboard is dynamic, your rank can change based on the activity of other participants.

Since leaderboard positions fluctuate, it’s recommended that you monitor your ranking regularly and adjust your strategy accordingly. Players who accumulate the most wishes by the end of each leaderboard round will receive the greatest rewards.

 that each round’s rewards and wishes are calculated independently, and any wishes spent in a round won’t carry over to the next round.

If you prefer an element of surprise, the Lucky Draw is your best bet. By spending wishes on Lucky Draw attempts, you earn the chance to win instant prizes. The Lucky Draw operates on a first-come, first-served basis, so the earlier you participate, the better your chances of securing top-tier rewards.

Since rewards are limited, it's advisable to use your wishes early before the top prizes run out.

An easy way to earn free points in this campaign is by holding Mantle (MNT) and/or Mantle Restaked ETH (cmETH) in your Bybit account. By simply keeping these assets in your wallet, you’ll receive additional wishes, increasing your chances of winning more rewards.

This passive method of earning wishes ensures that you accumulate extra points without actively completing tasks, making it one of the simplest ways to boost your rewards.

Another hidden gem for doubling your rewards in EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is through Layer 3. Participants who complete specific Layer 3 quests will receive extra bonuses, including double rewards on certain tasks.

By leveraging Layer 3 bonuses, you can significantly boost your total wish count, increasing your chances of securing leaderboard positions or hitting big wins in the Lucky Draw.

If you’re looking for a fun and rewarding way to engage with the Mantle ecosystem, EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is definitely an event worth joining. With 1,000,000 MNT up for grabs, both casual users and seasoned traders can benefit from this campaign.

The event's dual-reward system allows participants to tailor their strategy based on their preferences. Whether you enjoy the thrill of luck-based rewards or prefer the competitive edge of leaderboard climbing, this campaign offers something for everyone.

Additionally, holding MNT and cmETH provides passive earnings, while Layer 3 integration presents an opportunity for double rewards — making the experience even more lucrative for active participants.

EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge is a limited-time, gamified rewards campaign that blends trading, staking and on-chain interactions. By completing tasks, holding Mantle assets and strategically using your wishes, you can maximize your rewards and secure your share of the 1,000,000 MNT prize pool.

This event runs from Mar 6, 2025 to 27, 2025, so now is the best time to get started. Are you ready to explore the Mantle ecosystem and claim your rewards? Join EcoGalaxy: Mantle Surge today!

Beginner

how to participate in ecogalaxy mantle surge

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Join Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle, vote for top AI projects and compete for a share of a $1M prize pool. Earn rewards while shaping the future of AI in crypto.

The Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle is an exciting and innovative trading and voting event that aims to identify and support high-potential AI projects within the cryptocurrency space.

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to revolutionize blockchain technology, this competition offers users a unique opportunity to engage with emerging AI-driven crypto projects while earning substantial rewards of up to $1 million.

 (AI) and cryptocurrency is reshaping blockchain and 

 — autonomous programs powered by machine learning — are revolutionizing the sector by automating trading strategies, optimizing portfolio management and executing on-chain decisions with minimal human input.

These intelligent agents analyze vast datasets, identify market trends and execute trades in real time, significantly enhancing efficiency and reducing risks in the volatile crypto market. Their role extends beyond trading, influencing DeFi protocols, NFT markets and blockchain governance.

Bybit is at the forefront of this AI-driven transformation, launching the 

 to spotlight high-potential AI projects. This event provides a launchpad for groundbreaking AI applications, connecting innovators with a global crypto audience.

What Is the Bybit AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle?

Bybit is launching a unique AI trading event designed to highlight the most promising AI-driven crypto projects.

AI is revolutionizing crypto markets, with automated trading bots now executing over 60% of all crypto transactions. The integration of AI and blockchain is unlocking new trading strategies, DeFi innovations and web3 applications, making the AI sector one of the most promising in crypto.

Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle bridges AI and blockchain, providing a global stage for emerging projects to gain exposure to a global audience. Participants play an active role in shaping the future of AI in crypto while earning rewards.

How to Participate in the AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

Campaign Period: Feb 28, 2025, 10AM UTC – Mar 27, 2025, 10AM UTC

Bybit users can support AI projects and earn rewards by participating in this AI-powered trading competition. Here's a step-by-step guide to joining:

Projects earn voting points from the following ways:

By actively trading and voting, participants not only have a chance to earn from the $1 million prize pool, but will also play a crucial role in shaping the future of AI in the crypto industry.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers an exciting $1 million prize pool, with multiple ways for participants to win rewards.

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Spot is as follows:

The breakdown of how votes are allocated for Bybit Web3 is as follows:

The maximum number of daily votes that a user can receive is 100,400 (50,200 for Bybit Spot and Web3 respectively).

By trading, voting and engaging in the competition, participants not only support innovative AI projects but also receive a chance to maximize their earnings in this high-stakes trading battle.

Bybit's AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle offers a distinctive platform that connects cryptocurrency traders with AI innovators. Participants are invited to support leading AI projects, earn attractive rewards and contribute to shaping the future of AI within the crypto ecosystem. 

 and be part of the AI-driven revolution on Bybit!

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How to Participate in Bybit’s AI-DOL SUPERSTAR Trading Battle

TrendX is a web3 platform that hopes to provide crypto investors with one-click trading and investment solutions. Learn more here.

While cryptocurrency markets offer many fantastic investment opportunities, it can be hard to find the right option to invest in. TrendX hopes to make things much easier for investors. This project plans on using artificial intelligence (AI) analytics to find cryptos with a high chance of profitability. Here are some things to know before you start working with TrendX.

 platform that hopes to provide crypto investors with one-click trading and investment solutions. It uses AI and data processing analytics to assess and highlight promising investment opportunities. The TrendX platform also includes a variety of borrowing, lending and trading services.

TrendX began in 2022 as veDAO, a community-led system whose main focus was funding web3 projects through decentralized investing. Users could pool funds and vote to provide these funds to promising startups and cryptos. Over time, the evolving technology of the system became particularly adept at locating exciting investment opportunities. 

. This new name is meant to highlight the trend-tracking capabilities of the system, and to showcase the individual investment opportunities available through TrendX. The rebrand also coincided with the release of a native cryptocurrency for the TrendX system. 

TrendX believes it can remove some of the guesswork from investing while still providing users with new and exciting opportunities. The platform hopes to make investors' efforts easier and more profitable by using technology to highlight promising projects. 

TrendX's other primary goal is to decentralize and diversify the field of AI investing. Most AI crypto investment projects tend to be centralized systems, in which one company controls all the processing and lending power. TrendX's distributed computing makes the entire process more accessible. The company hopes it can put power in the hands of everyday users, so one centralized system isn’t dictating what people are purchasing.

Underneath the software that provides a simple and intuitive interface for its website, TrendX relies on a proprietary distributed computing network called 

. With Owlbot, every computer or phone that runs TrendX becomes a source of computational power. Users agree to lend their idle processing bandwidth to TrendX, and the community’s collective power is used to propel an AI system that collects investing data from an international pool of markets, processes the data and makes investment recommendations. 

 stores and protects each sensitive user connection and data collection point, so users can be confident that working with TrendX won’t leave them vulnerable to hackers or scams. Furthermore, the website uses some standard software tools, such as “verification successful” waiting and 

, to help its interface run as smoothly and securely as possible.

TrendX's shared computing connections and AI processing can be used for all sorts of 

 (DeFi) services. Following are the key features that the ecosystem offers.

Web3AI is TrendX's main trend-tracking system. It checks up repeatedly on tens of thousands of projects and crypto influencers, and looks at daily sentiment, social media activity and pricing trends to find the most promising projects to invest in. After performing due diligence, the system provides helpful metrics on various parameters, such as public opinion, number of fans and venture capitalist funding.

The KOL Square feature tracks key opinion leaders within the web3 space. By monitoring sentiment from major thought leaders, it allows users to see which cryptos are gaining in popularity. The feature includes helpful operational efficiency filters that let you select specific tags and projects for more details. 

For those who want to improve their cash flow without spending a lot of time tinkering with tools, TrendX offers Alpha Square, a service that starts with the same analytics as other features but then creates refined market strategies. These strategies are carefully market-tested before being offered to users. So far, they’ve been proven to provide 

Smart Money is a security-prioritizing version of trend tracking. It uses safety checks to help protect users from 

. The Smart Money system also closely analyzes parameters such as the number of wallets holding specific amounts of project tokens, so users can receive early warning when trends begin to shift. 

Web3 Project Search is all about exploring projects based on your connection with them. This investment research tool encourages users to filter and sort based on details such as sentiment indicators, project type and associations with specific influencers. The Project Search tool tracks over 22,000 different projects, making it easy to find an option that suits your unique parameters. 

This VIP service offers additional features to users who are willing to pay for extended access to the platform's AI services. Users who hold and stake TTA (more on this native token below) receive more real-time tracking, and wait shorter times for “verification successful.” Users with even greater privileges also get personalized recommendations and more access to project details. 

This built-in blockchain technology makes it easier to safely handle transactions and data for people within the TrendX ecosystem. It stores information for AI modeling training, and the decentralized system also ensures security for private user details, such as Ray ID.

In the few years since its founding, TrendX has developed many exciting technologies and attracted a robust community. Its recent rebrand and token launch have also helped its platform to grow and improve its cash flow. The next project that TrendX hopes to tackle is that of extending its technology to include additional features, such as improved security and enhanced trading features. 

, TrendX will be releasing a high-speed aggregated DEX with which users can buy and sell crypto. It also plans on exploring ways to take advantage of 

 and improved memory storage. By the fall of 2025, TrendX hopes to have an 

 fully tailored to offer individualized web3 investment advice. 

TrendX's cryptocurrency is more than just a simple investment opportunity released to attract funding. Instead, it features a complex 

 that’s deeply integrated into the platform's everyday functioning. 

Here's what you need to know about the TrendX dual token system.

. It’s used to manage application programming interfaces (APIs) and ad spaces, and to process fees. Users pay in TTA to cover transaction fees when swapping tokens, and when subscribing to premier investment strategies.

XTTA is the computing power token on the TrendX platform. When people provide their computing power to TrendX, they receive XTTA as a reward. XTTA can be mined through the Owlbot computing power system, or purchased directly to upgrade a user's chosen part of the Owlbot AI processing system without requiring them to give up computer processing power. 

As it launches its dual token system in 2025, TrendX is working hard to reward its community and promote its tokens. 

 have rewarded users for participating in the DAO to get more tokens. Now, in 2025, the main TrendX airdrop is about giving individual users tokens in exchange for social media activity, with 

 for it. Users can increase their portion of TTA by following TrendX on X or reposting TrendX posts. 

 and connecting your wallet to the airdrop. 

As the main token for paying fees on the TrendX network, TTA is an essential part of running the entire TrendX system. With a total supply of 1 billion tokens, it’s built on the Ethereum 

 scaling system, Basechain. These tokens are distributed according to the following schedule:

Though TTA tokens are just starting to hit pre-market listings, there’s already quite a bit of interest in them. Some predictions for TTA prices have focused on XTTA’s price. However, keep in mind that while XTTA is selling for $0.25, it does have a much 

 than TTA. Taking into account the fact that XTTA has about half the tokens that TTA does, it's possible that TTA may debut at around $0.10. 

Another useful metric to look at when considering TTA’s price is the crypto market as a whole. Usually, pricing patterns for new coins start with a brief jump, and prices then start to stabilize according to current market trends. Many crypto investors 

, with some quick increases in prices for summer 2025. If this occurs, TTA prices may look quite promising.

The TTA token is an intriguing option for investors. There’s been a lot of interest in the TrendX system, and so far, the company has been doing its due diligence to support and market the TTA token. This backing by a reputable company indicates that its token could perform well in open markets.

However, TrendX's dual token system could lead to some confusion. It's possible investors might only rally behind one coin, or that TTA and XTTA token prices could be tied a little too closely together. Therefore, investors need to retain some caution when working with this new token launch. Remember to account for market volatility, and don’t invest money you can’t afford to lose in TTA or any other crypto.

While TrendX began as a simple investing DAO, over time its impressive technology has helped it win over a larger audience. People looking for high levels of security, profitability and convenience may find that TrendX works well for their investment needs. 

Even if you aren't interested in AI and operational efficiency, check out TrendX's TTA and XTTA tokens. As the project expands, its cryptocurrencies may offer some exciting price growth.

Intermediate

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TrendX (TTA): Identifying Investment Opportunities With AI-Powered Analytics

Crypto Insights

We project a low chance of Ether Spot ETF approval in May, mainly due to regulators' silence.

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What’s Happening Now With the SEC’s Expected Approval of Ether Spot ETFs?

Ether Spot ETFs would track the performance of Ether, directly holding ETH. They differ from Ether Futures ETFs that are available in most markets, which require the periodic rolling of futures contracts and can possess tracking errors. Please refer to this 

The firms applying for listing Ether Spot ETFs in the U.S. are BlackRock, VanEck, ARK 21Shares, Grayscale, Fidelity, Invesco and Galaxy Digital (through a joint proposal), in addition to Franklin Templeton. 

The U.S. SEC has postponed its decision several times because it claims to need more time to consider the applications. However, the deadline for the earliest applicants, BlackRock and Fidelity, is one month away (May 23, 2024). 

It’s widely perceived that SEC rejection would lead to legal action from the applicants.

The market has been building up its anticipation of Ether Spot ETFs since the approval of the listing of Ether Spot ETFs in January 2024.

However, SEC Chair Gary Gensler said at that time that the Bitcoin Spot ETF approvals shouldn't "signal anything about the commission’s views as to the status of other crypto assets under the federal securities laws."

What’s the Chance of SEC Approval of Ether Spot ETFs in May 2024?

Ether’s price surged immediately after the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs back in January, and the market anticipates approval of Ether ETFs in the U.S. later this year. However, remarks from SEC Chairperson Gary Gensler on multiple occasions this year have dampened expectations.

In our view, the chance of Ether Spot ETF approval remains dim — despite Hong Kong’s surprising approval of them in April — as the agency is likely to stick to its own assessment before approving Ether Spot ETFs . 

ETH/BTC Ratio from July 2023 to April 2024. Source: Bybit

The dwindling ETH/BTC ratio also illuminates the lowering probability of Ether Spot ETF approval in the U.S., which has dropped below 0.05 —a multi-year low — as shown above. 

Open interest by strike price (ETH options with May 10, 2024 expiration dates). 

Open interest by strike price (ETH options with May 31, 2024 expiration dates). Source: Coinglass

However, the market hasn’t given up, as reflected in the exercise price of ETH options expiring before and after the deadline for the SEC’s decision on ETH Spot ETFs. The exercise price of calls expiring on May 10, 2024, centers on a $3,300~$3,400 interval, while the exercise of calls expiring on May 31, 2024 is remarkably higher, falling between $3,600 and $3,800.

 a substantial increase in Ether’s position by institutions as Bitcoin’s outperformance against Ether continues to test new lows. This suggests that institutions may have prepared for the approval of Ether Spot ETFs, at least in the medium term, following the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs.

The key consideration by the SEC lies in whether the ETH token is a security or commodity. Simply put, a token closer to the definition of security might have a higher chance of approval, as the SEC may determine it to be in compliance with Federal securities laws. 

 (PoW) models with no yield generation and is considered the most decentralized cryptocurrency due to its diverse user base. SEC Chairperson Gary Gensler has 

 several times that PoW tokens are unlikely to meet the definition of securities under federal laws. As Ether shifts from PoW to 

 (PoS) in 2021, Ether has a higher chance of qualifying as a security and less chance of getting approved.

In addition, the concentration risk of Ether staking could make it look more like a security. 

 of the total staked ETH on the network. However, the popularity of restaking in recent months may erode Lido’s dominance, and may indirectly ultimately lead to the approval of Ether Spot ETFs in the U.S.

What Makes the SEC’s Approval So Important?

Regions with Approved Bitcoin and Ether Spot ETFs (as of April 23, 2024).

Although Hong Kong is likely ahead of the U.S. in launching Ether Spot ETFs, as their approvals are expected to be completed by the end of this month (April 2024), not many markets worldwide are offering them yet. 

Despite the U.S, not being the first mover, the impact of approval in the U.S. market would likely be more profound due to the nation’s sheer capital size. Bitcoin Spot ETFs have attracted capital of more than $54 billion so far, leaving other markets in the dust in terms of size since their launch there three months ago. As such, it’s expected that Ether Spot ETFs would bring more capital than any of the existing legalized markets combined. 

If Ether Spot ETFs Are Approved, How Much Capital Can They Bring? 

Source: Compiled by Bybit (data as of April 23, 2024)

Based on the performance of Bitcoin Spot ETFs so far, it’s estimated that Ether Spot ETFs would accumulate at least $16 billion in capital.

Source:Compiled by Bybit (data as of April 23, 2024)

Nonetheless, if the SEC allows a version of staked Ether ETFs, the expected AUM is beyond imagination, as the current native yield from Ether staking amounts to 3.3%, higher than many of its competing asset classes.

Could Approval of Spot Ether ETFs Trigger Another Crypto Rally?

The possible approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs in September 2023 reversed Bitcoin's bearish trend, creating a new all-time high right after the actual ETF approval. Bitcoin's outperformance gave rise to an ensuing rally from other tokens, as speculation arose from upbeat market sentiment. As Bitcoin Spot ETF approval hit the headlines, new investors were tempted into the cryptocurrency and sustained the rally.

UST Market Capitalization. Source: CoinGecko (as of April 23, 2024)

The above chart indicates the market capitalization of USDT, the largest cryptocurrency. The increase in its market cap arises from increasing supply as it’s pegged to the U.S. dollar. Historically, the increasing supply coincided with the surging price action of the broader cryptocurrency, as the supply represents the on-chain capital. 

Therefore, the possible approval of Ether Spot ETFs will likely sustain the current bull market. New investors are expected to inject new capital into the crypto market, further boosting the supply of USDT. What’s more, approval could spur the broader price increase of Ethereum ecosystem tokens, primarily DeFi and 

What’s the Chance of Ether Spot ETF Approval in May? Can the Market Sustain Another Rally?

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