Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Nov 20, 2024): Market Becomes Extremely Positive About Bitcoin as Volatility Curve Turns Invert

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report dives into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Spot prices have jumped significantly in the two weeks following the November 5, 2024 U.S. elections, propelling Bitcoin to new all-time highs, while Ethereum hasn’t kept pace. The implied volatility term structure has inverted again in tandem with these spot price movements, although longer-dated tenors remain relatively stable. Derivatives market indicators reflect strong positive sentiment: perpetual funding rates are consistently positive, open interest in futures contracts is rapidly increasing and options skew remains firmly positive.

Open interest in futures has surged, indicating heightened market participation and a growing interest in leveraged exposure due to recent price movements. Similarly, open interest in perpetual contracts has sharply increased, fueled by rising trader confidence and a growing demand for leveraged positions in light of recent market rallies. Meanwhile, the implied volatility term structure continues to invert in alignment with spot price increases, demonstrating a sustained correlation between spot prices and volatility.

Please check out the report’s highlights.

Futures Open Interest Reaches ATH Along With Price

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Perpetual swap open interest has been increasing alongside futures, with a consistent rise in open positions over the past week reaching all-time high activity levels. This trend suggests that traders are actively pursuing leveraged exposure in response to the ongoing spot rallies, aiming to capitalize on the rising spot prices. Notably, there’s been renewed interest in Ethereum (ETH), reflected in rising trading volumes. 

Funding Rates Extremely Positive

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

Perpetual swap funding rates have reached exceptionally positive levels, indicating that long positions are confident enough to pay these rates to sustain their leveraged exposure. This trend has consistently been observed across all tokens, with a noticeable rise in funding rates since Nov 10, 2024. The persistently high funding rates highlight the strength of the bullish sentiment, which is also evident in the increasing open interest in futures contracts. This aligns with the recent spot price action, demonstrating significant upward momentum.

Option Volatility Term Structure Inverts 

Sources: Bybit, Block Scholes

The implied volatility term structure for Bitcoin has inverted amid the recent spot rallies over the past few weeks, indicating heightened market uncertainty and expectations of imminent price movements. However, levels haven’t exceeded the highs seen before the elections, and longer-dated tenors remain firmly range-bound. Concurrently, open interest in Bitcoin options has risen significantly, with a notable increase in put trading volumes. Open interest in puts has slightly surpassed calls, despite the persistently bullish market outlook indicated by the volatility smile skew.

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