Bybit X Block Scholes Crypto Derivatives Analytics Report (Jan 22, 2025): Sentiment Cools While Remaining Bullish Following Trump’s First Day

Key Highlights:

Our weekly crypto derivatives analytics report delves into macro events, the current state of crypto and trading signals from spot trading volume, and futures, options and perpetual contracts.

Trump's inauguration on Jan 20, 2025 was preceded by the launch of two meme coins from the Trump family, TRUMP and MELANIA, which quickly garnered billions in market capitalization. Speculation about a strategic Bitcoin reserve being included in the executive orders signed on the first day of his administration led to a significant bullish shift in derivatives market positioning. This shift resulted in an inversion of the term structure of volatility, increased funding rates on long positions and a tilt in short-tenor volatility smiles toward calls. However, when the anticipated bullish announcements didn’t materialize, implied volatility levels decreased, even as realized volatility increased. Despite this, the bullish skew toward out-of-the-money (OTM) calls persisted.

In the perpetual markets, funding rates remained consistently high across almost all assets, continuing beyond the inauguration event. In the options market, realized volatility surged to post-election highs, even as implied volatility levels fell due to an overestimation of the significance of inauguration day for crypto. Overall, positioning across all tenors remained bullishly tilted.

Please check out the report’s highlights.