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A “death cross” is when an asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) crosses below its 200-day SMA.
When this technical pattern happens on the price charts, it typically acts as a signal to traders that prices may fall further.
Ask TradeGPT: How can traders use a “death cross” in their trading strategies?
-5.6% so far in 2026 (year-to-date)
-22.8% since Iran War erupted
as much as -28% from record high (measured from all-time intraday high on January 29th, 2026, through intraday low on June 11th)
If spot gold forms another “death cross” soon, this will be the first time it’s happened since September 2023.
Over the past decade, spot gold has formed 7 “death crosses”:
1) Nov 21, 2016: fell 7.5%
(through intraday low on Dec 15, 2016)
2) June 22, 2018: fell 8.7%
(through Aug 16, 2018)
3) Feb 16, 2021: fell 6.5%
(through March 8, 2021)
4) Aug 6, 2021: fell 6.3%
(through Aug 9, 2021*)
5) Jan 26, 2022: fell 2.6%
(through Jan 28, 2022*)
*Gold saw a flash crash in August 2021, and another sharp drop in January 2022, in the lead up to the Fed’s most recent rate-hike cycle between 2022-2023
6) July 4, 2022: fell 10.8%
(through Sept 28, 2022)
7) Sept 27, 2023: fell 4.7%
(through Oct 6, 2023)
After that last “death cross” in 2023 though, the precious metal staged a monster rally and soared 209%, culminating in the current record high just shy of $5600 set in January 2026.
For another instance of a “death cross” at work, we highlighted this technical pattern for EURUSD - the world’s most-traded FX pair - back on April 10th, 2026.
Since that April 10th Market Pulse report, EURUSD+ has fallen by 3.2% - vindicating its “death cross” signal of further price declines.
As highlighted in our Market Pulse report published Monday, June 22nd,
The US May Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) - Fed’s preferred measure of inflation - is due to be released at 12:30 PM UTC on Thursday, June 25.
READ MORE (published Monday, June 22): 3 Assets to Watch (June 22-26): Brent Oil, Micron, USDJPY+
This event could be the next major catalyst for gold traders, though it has historically triggered relatively smaller gold price moves than the monthly US inflation (CPI) and US jobs report.
According to Bloomberg’s models, there’s a 73% chance that XAUUSD+ trades between $3949 - $4221 over the next one-week period (through Wed, July 1st).
POTENTIAL SCENARIOS
UPSIDE: Spot gold may rebound back above $4200 if the US PCE, along with other US economic data releases, prompt markets to lower their expectations for a Fed rate hike in 2026. Such a rebound may also stave off gold’s next “death cross”.
DOWNSIDE: Spot gold may dip into sub-$4000 prices if the US PCE reinforces the idea that US inflation remains sticky and risks moving higher, forcing the Fed to raise its benchmark rates in 2026.
As Bybit Learn’s Chief Market Analyst, Han Tan, shared with the media last week (Thursday, June 18th):
“The hawkish Fed leaves spot gold with a greater bias of dipping back into sub-$4,000 waters rather than reclaiming the $5,000 handle in the second half of 2026,”
Over the longer term, the Bloomberg model forecasts a 74% chance that XAUUSD+ could fall to as low as $3458, or rebound to as high as $4882 by the end of 2026.
Much will have to do with whether the Fed does indeed raise US interest rates and drag gold lower, or somehow surprisingly resume cutting interest rates (assuming US inflation cools down rapidly in 2H26) and boosts gold’s allure once more.
READ MORE (published March 20th, 2026): Here's why Gold and Silver sank to 6-week low, despite Middle East conflict.
DISCLAIMER:
This article is provided for general information and reflects the author’s views only. It does not constitute investment advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments or digital assets. Your ability to access or use any products or services mentioned may be subject to the laws and regulatory requirements of your jurisdiction.